#预测市场 Market volatility predictions often reflect traders' true expectations—VIX probabilities jump from 7% to 48%, and Hasset drops from 85% to 42%. Such dramatic reversals are not noise but signals.

Honestly, the impact of this event on the crypto market is worth dissecting. As a former Federal Reserve governor, Waugh is more independent than Hasset. The market is betting on: who becomes chairman might be more friendly to monetary policy? Based on JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s support, Wall Street favors Waugh’s steady style. Meanwhile, Trump’s vague statement that "both Kevins are great" just gives the market more room to continue betting.

From a follow-trade perspective, such macro expectation shifts often appear early in derivatives markets—pay attention to traders who adjust positions before policy expectation reversals. Their moves are often ahead of the news. Changes in probabilities on Polymarket and Kalshi are essentially institutional investors expressing their stance with real money. If your follow-trading targets have a keen sense of these events, their risk management level deserves an upgrade.

The market is still unfolding. Stop-loss and position control always come before predictions—remember this, so you won't be squeezed by the high volatility of predictive markets.