Calm Analysis: The Truth and Response in Market Panic

Brothers, don’t panic yet! The "blood flowing in the streets" in the live stream sounds scary, but we need to break down the facts:

1. Liquidation Data Is Seriously Exaggerated

According to the latest Coinglass data, the actual total liquidations across the entire network in the past 24 hours are $64.93 million, not 500 million. Longs were liquidated for $20.72 million, shorts for $44.21 million. Although unfortunate, it’s far from a "chain liquidation." When big events happen in crypto, we’ve seen liquidations of over a billion in a single day. The current scale of liquidations indicates leverage risk is being released in an orderly manner, not a systemic collapse.

2. BTC Price Is Not a "Flash Crash"

BTC is currently around $87,000, down about 31% from its all-time high, which is only a moderate correction in the crypto market. The 70% drop in the 2022 bear market has already happened; it’s premature to call this a "crash." The key is whether the support zone at $82,000–$85,000 can hold. Holding that means a healthy bull rebound.

3. Gold and Silver Hit New Records, But the Logic Is Different

Gold broke through $4,500/oz (up 70% this year), silver hit $75/oz (up 150% this year)—these are facts. But the driving factors are not "collapse of faith in paper money," but:

• Clear Fed rate cut cycle

• Dollar index falling below 98

• Global central banks increasing gold reserves for the third consecutive year

• Industrial demand (photovoltaics, new energy) boosting silver

This is normal risk aversion + industrial logic, not doomsday.

4. The "Trillion-Dollar Evaporation" of AI Stocks Is a Misinterpretation

Nvidia’s actual stock price in 2025 is up 36%, now at $188. The so-called "evaporation of a trillion in two days" might be a retracement in some periods, but its annual performance remains strong. Goldman Sachs indeed warned about a surge in tech debt, but that’s about debt risk, not an AI bubble burst. OpenAI’s losses are real, but burning money during the tech investment phase is normal; Microsoft went through this too.

5. Raw Material Price Surge Is Real

Lithium battery materials have indeed surged:

• Lithium hexafluorophosphate: 55,000 → 120,000/ton (+118%)

• Cobalt lithium: 140,000 → 350,000/ton (+150%)

But this is mainly due to supply-demand mismatch: explosive growth in new energy vehicles and energy storage, while lithium mining capacity takes a long time to expand. This is a structural opportunity, not a sign of broad inflation.

Replaying 2008? Don’t scare yourself

Similarities: high leverage, asset correction

Differences:

• Bank capital adequacy ratio 13% vs 4% in 2008 (vastly different risk resilience)

• Crypto market size less than 1/10 of US stocks, Lehman moment unlikely here

• The Fed has ample policy tools, not caught off guard like in 2008

What to do? Four rational steps

1️⃣ Deleveraging: Keep futures positions within 20%, avoid gambling with 50x leverage or more

2️⃣ Adjust holdings: Sell altcoins without fundamentals, keep core positions in BTC/ETH

3️⃣ Hedge: Allocate 10-15% to gold ETFs or physical gold, not for doomsday survival but to smooth volatility

4️⃣ Keep bullets: Reserve 30% cash; opportunities come from dips. If BTC drops below 80K after breaking 86K, it’s a golden opportunity

Elon Musk’s $38 trillion debt warning is a long-term risk, not an imminent explosion. His core view is "energy-based theory"—more like supporting Tesla’s energy business. But to be honest, US debt issues are a big minefield, though the trigger is unlikely to be in crypto.

Interaction topic: Do you think this correction will stabilize at which level? 80K, 75K, or 70K? Comment your bet, and the brother who guesses right will get a coffee next time we have a big dip! Don’t forget to like and share to let more folks see the real data and avoid panic-driven moves! #比特币与黄金战争 $BTC