Today's macro narrative sentiment is not sensitive, but there is still a marginal effect on the financial markets.

1. The minutes of Japan's December monetary policy meeting indicate that the market is shifting expectations towards a June 2026 rate hike in Japan, with possibly two rate hikes by 2026, and a future rate hike space of 50-75 basis points.

In the short term, the impact on the yen and Japanese bonds has already appeared, but the marginal effect on the entire financial market has not yet fully manifested. Currently, major financial markets have not entered the optimal liquidity phase.

2. Precious metals volatility: gold and silver prices are falling, which may lead to a "misunderstanding" that liquidity is replenishing risk markets. The theory is sound, but the key point is that currently, precious metals are in a bull market driven by gold, with silver, platinum, and other metals following the trend and rising.

Although gold currently drives the decline in silver and others, it depends on market sentiment. If the market expects gold to peak, then liquidity replenishing risk markets is no problem. Conversely, if the market expects only a correction after a new high, then the current decline may stimulate more active buying, and liquidity will not be replenished but rather absorbed again by precious metals.

3. US stock futures are not optimistic before the market opens, with tech stocks dragging down the index. The S&P futures are down 0.22%. Can the upward momentum from non-tech stocks last week continue? Personally, I think last week's main driver was the better-than-expected GDP, which led to a brief new high driven by non-tech stocks. This week, the macro narrative shifts again, with tech remaining the main story for US stocks. If tech stocks do not gain momentum, it will be difficult to sustain further gains.

Nvidia tonight will be the main pressure point. It performed well last week, and this week is seeing a correction. Watch whether Nvidia can support the index. Note that there is a gap between 6840 and 6855 on the S&P; the correction might fill this gap.

Summary:

As it's Monday, the financial markets have not fully recovered yet. Continued observation is needed to accurately assess the true market situation. Let's wait for the US stock market to open!