Recently, there has been a strange phenomenon in the market that is worth pondering.

Gold has already increased by +70% in 2025, and silver is even more exaggerated, soaring to +140-150%. These two traditional "safe-haven assets" are playing out vividly under the current inflation and geopolitical risk trading logic. But what about Bitcoin? Its price is around $87,000, and surprisingly, it has fallen by 8% this year. This is not just a comparison but also reveals a huge relative value dislocation.

Many people actually misunderstand what liquidity is. The market is bearish on the Federal Reserve’s new monthly $40 billion reserve management purchase tool (RMP), with reasons sounding very professional—saying that the current credit pulse has been diluted and is nowhere near the scale of 2009. But there is a hidden mathematical misjudgment here. Arthur Hayes has pointed this out— the issue is not the scale of RMP, but that the market has not yet truly realized its essence.

RMP, in simple terms, is just a new guise for quantitative easing. Once the market wakes up and recognizes the true nature of this tool, perceptions will quickly correct. By then, Bitcoin’s performance will be completely different. Logically, Bitcoin is likely to repeatedly test the $80,000 to $100,000 range before the end of the year, then recover the critical $124,000 level in Q1 2026, and subsequently launch a violent surge toward $200,000. This is not wishful thinking but based on liquidity logic and policy cycles.

There is also an overlooked bottom-line logic. The positive effects of Trump’s first year in office have been fully priced in; at this stage, it indeed looks weak. But don’t forget, he still has a full three-year term. More importantly, the Trump family and their business partners have already established deep roots in the crypto space. This means that over the next three years, policy benefits will follow one after another—not by chance, but as part of a systemic direction.

So, returning to the initial question: if you maintain a macro view that "hard currency" will prevail in 2025, your overall direction is actually correct. But the tools you choose are wrong. The bull market in gold and silver reflects traditional safe-haven thinking, but under the dual influence of liquidity and policy cycles, Bitcoin is the asset truly embodying this logic. The relative valuation dislocation will not last forever and will be quickly corrected when the time comes.