This week's major unlock warning: HYPE and SUI face massive releases, how will it affect the market?

This week, several major crypto projects will execute token unlocks as scheduled, with the total release value attracting significant attention. Among them, Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock approximately $256 million worth of tokens in a single event, becoming a focal point in the market.

Meanwhile, Sui (SUI) will also unlock about $63.4 million worth of tokens on January 1. These events occur against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s price retreating approximately 25% from its all-time high and the overall market sentiment turning cautious.

01 Token Unlock Schedule for This Week

In the coming days, the crypto market will witness a series of token unlock events. According to Token Unlocks data, from December 29 to January 2, multiple projects will release large amounts of tokens as planned.

First, today (December 29) at 3:30 PM, Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock about 9.92 million tokens, representing approximately 2.87% of the circulating supply, valued at around $256 million.

Tomorrow (December 30) at 8:00 AM, two projects will unlock simultaneously: Slash Vision Labs (SVL) will unlock about 234 million tokens (2.96% of circulating supply, worth approximately $6.8 million); Zora (ZORA) will unlock about 166 million tokens (4.17% of circulating supply, worth about $6.7 million).

Also on December 30, at 8:00 PM, Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens, accounting for 5.35% of the circulating supply, valued at about $11.8 million.

On December 31 at 8:00 AM, Optimism (OP) will unlock about 31.34 million tokens, representing 1.65% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $8.6 million.

On January 1 at 8:00 AM, Sui (SUI) will unlock about 43.69 million tokens, accounting for 1.17% of the circulating supply, valued at around $63.4 million.

On January 1 at 12:00 PM, EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 36.82 million tokens, representing 9.74% of the circulating supply, worth about $14.4 million.

On January 2 at 3:00 PM, Ethena (ENA) will unlock about 40.63 million tokens, which is 0.56% of the circulating supply, valued at around $8.6 million.

02 Key Unlock Projects Analysis

Among the numerous unlock events, HYPE and SUI have the largest scales, potentially exerting more significant influence on the market.

The unlock of Hyperliquid (HYPE) is particularly noteworthy. This event involves approximately 9.92 million tokens, valued at up to $256 million, accounting for 2.87% of the circulating supply.

It is worth noting that the Hyperliquid team has confirmed that in earlier unlocks, a total of 1.75 million HYPE tokens were unlocked for developers and core contributors. The team stated that this unlock is part of an established vesting plan and was disclosed in advance. In comparison, about 270 million tokens were fully unlocked on November 29, 2024.

The scale of SUI’s unlock is also not to be underestimated. On January 1 at 8:00 AM, SUI will unlock about 43.69 million tokens, valued at approximately $63.4 million, representing 1.17% of the circulating supply.

Although the percentage seems modest, in the current market environment, any large-scale token release could intensify price volatility. This is especially relevant considering that the total crypto market cap has retreated from its mid-year highs.

Zora (ZORA) has a relatively high unlock ratio of 4.17%. While the absolute value is relatively small (around $6.7 million), the higher circulating ratio could lead to greater price fluctuations.

03 Market Background and Impact Assessment

The current crypto market is in a complex and cautious phase. As of December 29, Bitcoin’s price has hovered around $89,000 after a series of fluctuations, down about 25% from its record high of $126,000 set in October.

Market volatility has undergone a qualitative change. The previous pattern of irrational surges and crashes has diminished, replaced by market fluctuations driven by macro factors such as Federal Reserve monetary policy.

In this context, large-scale token unlocks may add additional selling pressure. Especially when market liquidity is relatively tight, newly released tokens held by investors may be sold, further depressing prices.

It is important to note that the impact of unlocks may vary across projects. For example, Hyperliquid has never conducted external financing, so there is no investor unlock selling pressure. This may mean that HYPE’s unlocks might not lead to large-scale sell-offs.

In contrast, projects with venture capital backing may face greater selling pressure upon unlock, as early investors might seek to realize some profits.

04 Investor Strategies

In the face of upcoming token unlock waves, investors need to stay vigilant and develop appropriate strategies.

Pay attention to unlock timing and adjust positions in advance. For investors holding tokens that are about to unlock, consider reducing positions before the unlock or setting stop-loss orders to manage risk.

Differentiate the nature of unlocks across projects. Understanding the background and potential intentions of token recipients is crucial. For example, tokens held by the team and advisors may not be sold immediately after unlock, whereas early investors might be more motivated to realize profits.

Monitor market sentiment and overall trends. The current crypto market has become more correlated with traditional markets, especially the Nasdaq index. When considering the impact of token unlocks, it is important to factor in the overall market environment.

Consider using hedging tools. For investors who do not want to sell holdings but are concerned about price declines, options and other derivatives can be used for hedging, or risk hedging tools available on platforms like Gate.

05 Safe Trading on Gate

During market volatility caused by token unlocks, choosing a reliable and highly liquid trading platform is essential. Gate provides traders with a secure and efficient trading environment, especially suitable for executing strategies during such market events.

Gate offers real-time price data and depth charts to help traders accurately gauge market trends. The platform supports various order types, including limit orders, market orders, and stop-loss orders, allowing precise control over entry and exit points.

For traders paying attention to token unlock events, Gate’s news and research sections provide timely market analysis to help you make informed decisions. The platform also offers multiple risk management tools to protect your assets amid market fluctuations.

Gate’s high liquidity ensures large orders can be executed quickly, reducing slippage risks. This is particularly important during periods when token unlocks may cause sharp price swings.

Future Outlook

The market is always seeking direction amid uncertainty. When SUI completes its final wave of unlocks at 8:00 AM on January 1, with $63.4 million worth of tokens entering circulation, the market may have already absorbed most of this unlock wave’s impact.

However, investors’ keen eyes will not stop there. Bitcoin’s price still oscillates around $89,000, a reminder that the volatility of cryptocurrencies remains unchanged, with about a 25% drop from its all-time high.

At this moment, another unrelated data point is also worth noting: Treehouse (TREE) tokens have increased by 2.90% in the past 24 hours. This slight but positive signal suggests that even in a cautious overall market environment, there are still localized opportunities.