December 29, 2025 Report

Weekend market fluctuations are modest, with BTC oscillating around $89,000.

From the data, BTC's turnover rate continues to decline, which is in line with expectations.

However, the position where BTC has accumulated chips at $87,000 is approaching 800,000 coins, which is not a good sign.

Because when a single price level accumulates too many chips, the market tends to be forced to choose a direction, and short-term volatility will increase.

MicroStrategy MSTR has released a BTC tracker again, hinting that they plan to continue increasing their BTC holdings.

But the most critical issue now is not whether they will buy more BTC, but whether they will be removed from the MSCI index.

If removed, it could trigger significant passive selling, increasing pressure on MSTR, and may even cause panic in the BTC market in the short term.

Conversely, if they are not removed from the MSCI index, it will boost market sentiment.

Regarding ETH, MicroStrategy BMNR increased its ETH holdings by 98,852 coins last week, with an average price of $2,976.

They now hold over 4 million ETH, with an average cost basis of $3,884, currently showing a floating loss of $3.37 billion.

From the chip structure perspective, the most concentrated area for ETH chips is between $2,700 and $3,100, where 17.9 million ETH are stacked, accounting for 22.6% of the total circulating supply, a very high proportion.

Among them, the $2,700 level has the highest chip accumulation, with 4.43 million ETH changing hands here. The next is the $3,100 level, also with 4.43 million ETH.

On-chain data shows that $3,100 is not a resistance level for a rebound, but $2,700 is likely an effective support.

Currently, ETH's price is oscillating within this range mainly because some institutions have reached a consensus here and are willing to take action to absorb selling pressure.

However, comparing ETH's chip structure with BTC's, one can immediately see ETH's critical weakness: its support below is too fragile.

The most obvious chip accumulation zone below ETH is between $50 and $396, where 9.83 million ETH are held, accounting for 12.4% of the total circulating supply.

This means that from $396 down to $2,700, there is a huge vacuum zone, with a very even distribution of chips, making it impossible to form a stable dual-anchor structure like BTC.

If ETH's price falls below the $2,700 critical support line, in this large vacuum zone below, any price point could become a temporary bottom, but none can hold.

The nearest vacuum zone to the current price is between $1,800 and $2,600. If a further decline occurs, the most probable stopping point is here.

Therefore, for ETH, the real trouble is not how many trapped positions are above, but that there are still too many early profit-taking chips below, especially the nearly 10 million ancient chips in the $50-$396 zone.

We simply cannot predict which level will truly support ETH after breaking the $2,700 line. This uncertainty is the most frightening.

From a capital perspective, on-chain funds have increased by 500 million, with a total of $313.3 billion.

USDT market cap increased by $502 million, indicating that after a week, funds have flowed back into the Asian market en masse, and investor sentiment has improved.

USDC market cap increased by $3 million. Although US market funds haven't significantly flowed back, at least net outflows have paused, indicating that US investor sentiment is warming.

In the short term, US long-term bonds are strengthening, the dollar is weakening, gold and silver continue to hit new highs, suggesting that current market liquidity favors defensive assets.

Overall, the macro environment is unfavorable for risk markets, and risk aversion remains high.

Next week, trading volume and liquidity are unlikely to improve significantly; short-term volatility will likely persist.