Today, after the release of the Bank of Japan meeting minutes, the market experienced a short-term rally. From a technical perspective, the previous triangle consolidation has already touched the breakout end on the four-hour chart, and in the short term, a pullback is still needed to confirm the validity of this breakout. Currently, we are in the pullback phase.

The key signals will come when the US stock market opens in the evening. At that time, liquidity will flow back in, and the real test is whether we can hold steady at the 88,000 level on the daily chart. If we can successfully hold above this level, the probability of a bullish rebound will significantly increase, and there is still potential for further upward movement. However, based on past trend patterns, a rise followed by a fall is quite common, and our recent small wave short position is indeed a bit regrettable.

On the flip side, we must be prepared—if the 88,000 level cannot be maintained, the market will continue to retrace downward as previously predicted, continuing the bottom consolidation rhythm. At this point, patience is key; calmly wait for a higher cost-performance bottom opportunity to appear.

From a larger cycle perspective, after reducing positions last time, I still held 30% of my holdings in cash, and I haven't yet seen an opportunity below 84,000. During this phase, liquidity drying up is a fact everyone can see. Maintaining a moderate cash position is actually a good choice; when no opportunities are visible, decisively refrain from adding positions and wait patiently.

Until around March next year, before a potential cycle low appears, the strategy for position management is: allocate small amounts in batches at each expected low point, then exit with larger positions at rebound highs. If the entry point isn't ideal, it's better to stay flat rather than chase the rally. When prices rise, gradually reduce positions—release some of the holdings bit by bit, rather than going all-in at once.