2025-12-29 10:21:08

Japan's 2026 fiscal year budget has just been announced: total expenditures of 122 trillion yen, tax revenue of 83 trillion yen, and a gap? An additional bond issuance of 29.6 trillion yen.

In other words, the government has opened a new "account" with 29.6 trillion yen to fill this year's hole. Prime Minister Takashi's original words are "responsibly and actively borrowing"—this sounds impressive, but numbers don't lie.

Japan's current predicament is clear: aging population, continued decline in consumer demand, and the shadow of deflation not yet fully lifted. The government's only way out is to increase public investment to stimulate the economy, but this approach has been repeated for thirty years.

The most painful part comes—interest rates. As soon as the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, this high-debt model will immediately reveal its fragility. The debt scale is growing larger, and the annual debt service pressure is also increasing. At the current pace, Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has already far exceeded that of other developed countries, and risks are accumulating.

In simple terms: Japan's economy is trapped in a cycle—insufficient growth → reliance on debt to fill the gap → debt expansion → increasing interest pressure. What does this imply for the global financial markets? When government finances are tight and central banks are forced to keep interest rates low, the source of market liquidity becomes extremely unstable. For the crypto market, this macro background is worth close attention.

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HalfIsEmpty

· 11h ago

Japan's debt is snowballing, and an explosion is only a matter of time. Thirty years of the same trick, anyone would get tired of it. How long can low interest rate support hold up? It's really hard to say. If the central bank raises interest rates, the entire market will have to start over. At this pace, liquidity in the crypto world will have to go broke. Japan's situation will eventually affect the global financial system. Debt-to-GDP ratio is so high compared to developed countries, it's truly alarming. Borrowing responsibly? Sounds like a cover-up. With an aging population and stagnant consumption, they can only rely on printing money to support. The risk buildup is so high, yet it hasn't collapsed—it's just luck.

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On-ChainDiver

· 11h ago

29.6 trillion is back, the debt black hole is really getting deeper and deeper

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MEVSandwichVictim

· 11h ago

Japan's traditional approach is indeed old-fashioned, but the real issue is that the whole world is doing the same thing. It's another classic debt trap—on a positive note, it's "active borrowing"; on a less favorable note, it's overdrawing the future. Once interest rates rise, the vulnerability of these heavily indebted countries will be exposed, and it looks quite alarming. When central banks print money to keep interest rates low, market liquidity is inherently unstable—what will this mean for the on-chain environment? 30 years of the same routine—truly impressive. That group of politicians probably can't come up with new tricks. With such a high debt-to-GDP ratio, if a black swan suddenly appears... never mind, I don't want to think about it. Why do some people still believe the government can save the economy through spending? That logic really doesn't hold up. The devaluation of fiat currency will eventually reflect in some asset—it's just a matter of who reacts first.

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FloorPriceWatcher

· 11h ago

Japan's current situation is really about to become unsustainable; if the central bank raises interest rates again, it's game over.

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HappyMinerUncle

· 12h ago

Japan's 29.6 trillion yen bonds are truly impressive. Can the same old tricks be played for thirty years? It's not that borrowing is impossible; it's just that if interest rates move even a little one day, the entire system could be doomed.

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AirdropBlackHole

· 12h ago

Japan's recent bond issuance is truly unsustainable, with 30 trillion yen filling the gaps. When interest rates rise, the true situation will be exposed. --- Using the same tricks for 30 years, no wonder the market is tired. There must be liquidity issues behind this. --- Damn, responsible borrowing? The numbers are right here. The debt-to-GDP ratio has long been off the charts. If the central bank doesn't loosen policy, a collapse is imminent. --- The Japanese government is setting a bad example for global central banks. Once the low-interest trap becomes inescapable, it turns into a vicious cycle. This opens opportunities in the crypto market. --- Aging population combined with sluggish consumption will inevitably lead to debt default. This is the real systemic risk, more transparent than any black swan. --- Interest repayment pressures are increasing every year? Then future government funds will all go toward debt repayment, and economic growth becomes just a fantasy. --- Thirty years of public investment stimulation haven't revived Japan. What does that mean? Simply throwing money around doesn't work. This is actually a signal for the crypto world.

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GasWaster69

· 12h ago

Japan really can't play anymore, using the same old tricks for 30 years... The debt bomb will inevitably explode sooner or later, it just depends on who presses the button first. "Responsible borrowing" haha, just listen to it, after all, numbers speak. As soon as the central bank raises interest rates, Japan is doomed, now just waiting to watch the show. The time for crypto to take off is when liquidity dries up, and I’ve been waiting for this day.

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