I suddenly discovered something buried within the folds of the moving averages, more addictive than watching the market every day. ETH is now positioned between 3090 and 3250, and a decision must be made. Tonight, there is a critical point; if you step wrong, you might miss a wave of market movement that could last half a year.

Let me first lay out my thoughts—my judgment may not be absolutely correct, but logically it holds up.

Having watched the crypto market for several years, I’ve been both taught lessons and made profits, so I understand retail traders' pain points best. Some people listen to various calls all day and get confused, while others try to analyze on their own and only get more tangled. So today, I won’t talk about empty theories but will clearly share my market feelings.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, ETH’s candlesticks now seem stuck in the middle. The 20-day moving average tightly hugs the lower price, acting as short-term support; meanwhile, the 60-day moving average is wavering above. The gap between these two lines falls right within the 3090 to 3120 range—this is no coincidence; it reflects the tug-of-war between the bulls and bears. Bears want to push the price below 3090 to release pressure, while bulls are defending this level, like two people pulling on the last rope; whoever lets go first loses.

What to watch closely is tonight’s 21:30 trading volume. Looking back at the data from the past two weeks, I found that every time ETH approaches a key level, trading volume shows clear signals. Whether it can break through 3150 largely depends on whether the volume can cooperate.