2025-12-29 09:20:12

#比特币与黄金战争 Regarding the popularity issues in this bear market, I have some observations I’d like to share.

Compared to the top of the 2021 rally, where activity remained relatively high until August 2022, the real lull only occurred in the two months following the FTX collapse, when activity was sparse.

This time is different. We started weakening from the seasonal top in October, and in just three months, participation dropped sharply. Why is that? The core reason is—this top itself wasn’t as lively.

The decline from a popularity score of 100 to 10 is a slow process, but once it slides from 30 to 10, the speed accelerates dramatically. What does this mean? According to market cycle patterns, the bottom is likely to appear much earlier.

Looking at the performance of major coins like $BTC, $ETH, $BNB, combined with on-chain activity data, the logic becomes clearer. It’s not that the bear market is ending immediately, but that the duration of this bear cycle might be more compressed than expected.

BTC-0,28%

ETH-0,04%

BNB-0,46%

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faded_wojak.eth

· 12h ago

This bear market is really cooling down quickly, dropping straight down in three months. I'm starting to feel the pressure.

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rugdoc.eth

· 12h ago

This logic has some merit, but it still feels like we need to rely on on-chain data to speak for itself. Looking at popularity alone is too one-sided.

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NightAirdropper

· 12h ago

This logic makes sense; the speed from 30 to 10 is indeed incredibly fast. It feels like the bottom is really not far away.

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NonFungibleDegen

· 12h ago

ngl this "participation cliff" thing is making me cope a little too hard rn... like yeah the top was mid af but does that mean we're actually closer to the bottom or just more people realized this whole thing is a casino lmao

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OnchainHolmes

· 12h ago

Yeah, that makes sense. This time it really cooled down quickly, and it felt like the heat never really picked up from the beginning.

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WalletWhisperer

· 12h ago

nah this participation cliff is actually the tell... when sentiment drops from 30 to 10 the velocity hits different, statistically speaking we're seeing behavioral compression that usually precedes structural bottoms, not saying bull season tomorrow but the cycle math checks out fr

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