#比特币价格走势 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin surpassing 100,000 this year on Polymarket drop from a high level to 25%, I have to say, this indeed reflects a change in market sentiment. But from another perspective, isn’t this an interesting phenomenon?

The fluctuations in predicted probabilities are essentially the collective judgment of market participants about the future, and this number itself is the charm of decentralized prediction markets — it reflects real information aggregation better than traditional financial one-way signaling. A 25% probability doesn’t mean it’s impossible; it just indicates that the market’s short-term breakout expectations are not as optimistic right now.

This reminds us of an important realization: the crypto market indeed has volatility and uncertainty, but it is precisely this market-based discovery mechanism that makes price signals more transparent and honest. Instead of fixating on a specific price target, it’s better to understand how these decentralized tools in the Web3 world operate — by incentivizing every participant to provide the most truthful predictions.

In the long run, the narrative of Bitcoin’s value remains unchanged. Short-term emotional fluctuations are normal; what’s important is whether we can seize these cyclical learning opportunities to gain a deeper understanding of how the market functions.