【Crypto World】LIT is about to go public, and market reactions are divided. The pre-market price has already reached $3.423. Based on the current circulating supply, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) is $3.423 billion. But does this mean there is still room for further growth?
The prediction market gives a less optimistic answer. On a well-known prediction platform, the current support probability that the FDV will exceed $3 billion one day after LIT’s listing is only 47%—in other words, the market believes there is more than a 50% chance that LIT will fall below this valuation after listing.
This prediction is also quite popular, with participating funds accumulating to $50.4 million. This indicates that investors are generally cautious about LIT’s listing trend, not fully optimistic about a surge nor bearish, but rather seeing significant uncertainty. Based on the pre-market price of $3.4, if the FDV truly drops below $3 billion, it means the price would have to go lower. The current market sentiment can be described as “wait-and-see.”
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Anon32942
· 8h ago
A 47% probability means most people think it will break the support level. They dare to price at 3.4 before trading starts, and on the first day of listing, it might get hammered.
50 million in funds are betting on whether it can hold 3 billion. The hype is indeed crazy, but I think it's risky.
LIT's pre-market trend looks a bit fake, feeling like the last surge before harvesting the leek.
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HashBandit
· 12-29 09:06
ngl, 47% odds on holding $30b fdv sounds like people are just hedging their bags tbh... back in my mining days we had way more conviction either way, not this wishy-washy middle ground energy. but also $50m on the line? that's actual skin in the game, so maybe the uncertainty is justified lol
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BridgeTrustFund
· 12-29 08:53
What does a 47% probability mean? Just gambling, I don't know whether to get in now or wait and see.
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$3.4 before the market opens, the chance of breaking $3 on the first day of listing is pretty high.
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Investing fifty million dollars just to gamble on whether they can hold onto 3 billion; this market is truly crazy.
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Another new coin full of uncertainty; it feels safer to wait and see.
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In such a polarized market response, retail investors are the most likely to get cut; it's better to wait until the trend is clearer.
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LeverageAddict
· 12-29 08:46
47% support rate? That's outrageous, feels like everyone is just betting on both sides of a coin haha
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Pre-market surged to 3.4 and then sold off, no need to wait for it to break 3
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Spending 50 million USD just to gamble on uncertainty, how idle can someone be
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LIT this time feels like just hype speculation, probably doomed after it lands
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Another "could go up or down" project, I'm choosing to sleep
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With the market sentiment like this, the day of listing might just be a bloodbath
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Really? 47 to 53 split like that? Feels like the prediction market doesn't even know when
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I'm curious who still dares to throw money at the 3.4 price to participate in predictions
LIT surged past $3.4 before the market opens. What does the forecast market expect for its performance after listing?
【Crypto World】LIT is about to go public, and market reactions are divided. The pre-market price has already reached $3.423. Based on the current circulating supply, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) is $3.423 billion. But does this mean there is still room for further growth?
The prediction market gives a less optimistic answer. On a well-known prediction platform, the current support probability that the FDV will exceed $3 billion one day after LIT’s listing is only 47%—in other words, the market believes there is more than a 50% chance that LIT will fall below this valuation after listing.
This prediction is also quite popular, with participating funds accumulating to $50.4 million. This indicates that investors are generally cautious about LIT’s listing trend, not fully optimistic about a surge nor bearish, but rather seeing significant uncertainty. Based on the pre-market price of $3.4, if the FDV truly drops below $3 billion, it means the price would have to go lower. The current market sentiment can be described as “wait-and-see.”