Analyst warns that Bitcoin might need a drop below $80,000 to shake out weak holders

Source: Yellow Original Title: Analyst warns that Bitcoin might need a dip below $80,000 to shake out weak holders

Original Link: https://yellow.com/es/news/analista-advierte-que-bitcoin-podria-necesitar-caer-por-debajo-de-80000-para-expulsar-a-los-tenedores-débiles Bitcoin faces increasing pressure as on-chain data reveals an unusual rise in short-term holder supply coinciding with price weakness near $87,000. Pseudonymous analyst Sunny Mom states that this pattern indicates persistent bearish sentiment rather than the typical bullish accumulation seen during similar metric shifts.

What happened: short-term supply expansion

Mom highlighted Bitcoin’s HODL waves in a December 27 post, showing that short-term holder supply is expanding as prices fall, reversing historical patterns that usually precede rebounds. Coins held for less than 155 days now make up an increasing proportion of the total supply, but the analyst describes this as a “passive bag holding” rather than fresh capital entering the market.

Investors who bought during the October rally up to $120,000 and those who bought the November dip are now sitting on unrealized losses, creating selling pressure on each price recovery attempt.

Mom explains that these holders are trying to break even, turning the growing short-term group into a price ceiling rather than a support.

The peaks in Realized Losses have repeated since October liquidations, indicating capitulation is underway as investors consolidate losses after months of waiting.

The analyst describes the process as a “blunt knife” that finally cuts hard, expelling weaker hands through prolonged exhaustion rather than a single crash.

Why it matters: demand gap creates bearish risk

Exchange reserves are near multi-year lows, while long-term holders show little interest in distributing coins, creating a demand vacuum despite limited selling pressure.

Mom states that moderate selling could push prices sharply lower on shallow order books, as macro uncertainty keeps new buyers cautious.

The analyst predicts that Bitcoin might need a move below $80,000 to shake out the remaining weak hands and allow larger holders to reaccumulate, despite some market participants pointing to a recovery in the first quarter of 2026 based on expected rate cuts and improved global liquidity.