2025-12-27 04:00:34

#数字资产市场动态 $AT $SUI

The Bank of Japan's move was really decisive—raising interest rates to 0.75%. So what was the market's reaction? It was utterly absurd: the yen not only failed to appreciate, but actually fell below the 157 level, approaching a three-year low, while the Nikkei index surprisingly rose over 2%. What’s behind this dramatic reversal?

On the surface, rate hikes should be positive for the yen, but the problem is that the market had already priced in this expectation long ago. The central bank governor’s comment that "there will be no aggressive rate hikes" was like a cold shower—hot money simply isn’t interested in flowing back. Let’s do some quick math: after the rate hike, the yen remains one of the cheapest financing currencies among major global currencies, with a US-Japan interest rate differential exceeding 400 basis points, so there’s no incentive for carry trades to unwind.

The real driving force is actually in the supply chain. Trump’s "de-China-ization" strategy is rewriting the global trade map. China’s trade surplus with the US has sharply fallen by 29% year-over-year, and Japan is seizing the opportunity—November exports to the US increased by 8.8%, and exports to the EU surged by 19.6%. For Japan, a weak yen is the best competitive weapon; appreciating the yen would be self-defeating.

Long-term risks are the most painful: a ¥21.3 trillion stimulus plan is forcing Japanese government bonds to be issued more, and with an aging society, pension fund capacity to absorb these shocks is declining sharply. The 10-year Japanese bond yield has broken through 2%, reaching a 26-year high. About 23% of Japan’s fiscal expenditure goes toward debt interest payments, and global investors have long lost confidence in its fiscal sustainability—who still wants to hold yen assets?

Ultimately, a sharp appreciation of the yen doesn’t align with Japan’s current interests, and a significant decline would also be costly. The most likely scenario is a range-bound oscillation with no extreme moves. Instead of betting on extreme currency fluctuations, it’s better to watch the US-Japan interest rate differential and the pace of supply chain shifts—these are the key factors influencing capital flows in the crypto space.

What do you think? Will the yen really break 160? What black swans might Trump’s trade policies still unleash?

AT2,4%

SUI3,06%

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WenMoon

· 12-27 04:30

A weak yen is the real winner; who dares to say no to the trade war dividends? --- Another big chess game; hot money simply doesn't buy into the central bank's approach. --- Supply chain relocation is the next growth point; Japan has this move figured out. --- 23% of fiscal revenue goes to debt repayment? That long-term hidden danger is indeed painful. --- A 400 basis point spread is right there; who would close their position? --- It feels like the yen should hover around 155-160, with little chance for movement. --- Trump's wave of "de-China-ization" is really reshaping the global trade landscape. --- So, instead of watching exchange rate fluctuations, it's better to follow supply chain flows. --- Japan's 26-year high in bond yields signals some danger. --- A weak yen = Japan's export competitiveness; appreciation would be suicidal. --- That statement from the central bank has killed market expectations. --- Rather than betting on a yen breakthrough, it's better to track the US-Japan interest rate differential.

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CrossChainBreather

· 12-27 04:30

The pair trading folks really have it figured out—400 basis points of interest spread and no liquidation? Ridiculous. --- A weak yen is Japan's true strategy; the supply chain link has won big this round. --- Japanese bond yields breaking 2%—this debt trap will eventually blow up. I understand if you don't want to hold yen. --- Trump's de-Sinicization move indeed changed the game; Japan is the biggest happy camper. --- The US-Japan interest rate differential is the real focus; it's more worth watching than whether the exchange rate breaks 160. --- Aging society's pension buffer capacity is plummeting; Japan's fiscal sustainability is truly at risk. --- 157 broke a three-year low, but is that actually more comfortable for Japan? That's a bit counterintuitive. --- Range-bound oscillation is inevitable; don't expect extreme market moves. Monitoring supply chain rhythm is more critical.

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LayerZeroEnjoyer

· 12-27 04:14

The yen's recent moves are truly brilliant. The apparent rate hikes are actually just market stabilization efforts. In other words, they don't want the yen to appreciate. --- After Trump's disruption, the global trade landscape has been completely reshuffled. Japan's recent opportunistic moves are so comfortable. --- Wait, did the Japanese government bond yield break 2% to hit a 26-year high? How embarrassing is that? No wonder the funds are not buying in. --- Carry traders are laughing to death. With a 400 basis point spread, why would they close their positions? Yen appreciation is pure self-destruction. --- With 23% of fiscal expenditure going toward debt repayment, Japan is really starting to struggle. In the long run, Japanese assets are indeed less attractive. --- I just want to know if it will really break 160. Is there any big shot willing to take a shot? --- Supply chain shifts are the real deal. Exchange rate fluctuations are just surface articles. Watching this is much more useful than looking at K-line charts.

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