#数字资产市场动态 Weekend Market Briefing

Market Background
Yesterday, at the end of Christmas, US stock trading volume significantly shrank, mainly driven by quantitative institutions. The market was quite volatile—opening and closing prices were almost the same. Interestingly, recent funds have been flocking into precious metals, with silver prices rising nearly 10% in a single day. This surge in precious metals directly stole the spotlight from the crypto market, making the overall market appear somewhat weak.

Technical Analysis
Yesterday, options expiration volume hit a record high. $BTC was pushed up during the day but reversed sharply after the US stock market opened. Although a gap was formed in the chart, the 15-minute candlestick pattern was not broken, turning the daytime rally into a false breakout. However, Bitcoin held firm around 86,800 and did not break below.

Since late November, $BTC has been forming a range with over 10% amplitude. In the past week, its volatility has narrowed, mainly oscillating within a $4,000 range. There are many trading traces around 87,000, which often indicates a potential trend reversal—possibly a big move is coming. From a technical perspective, it’s unclear whether it will go up or down, but the market is clearly sending a signal: a major change is imminent.

Weekend trading volume and volatility are expected to decline, making it a good opportunity for range trading. Mainstream coins are generally stable, with funds moving within limited space.

Trading Suggestions: Consider long positions around 86,800 for $BTC, and short positions around 88,400 for resistance.

Ethereum’s range is more obvious, with both sides showing false breakouts. The bulls are indeed quite weak. Yesterday’s options expiration pain point was around 3,000, and although it didn’t reach that level, it was very close. The strike probabilities for both call and put options are not very high.

$ETH usually exhibits more intense volatility, but yesterday it didn’t break out of a significant trendline, indicating that current bullish and bearish forces are relatively balanced, with no clear dominance.

Trading Suggestions: Consider long positions around 2,900 and short positions around 2,980.