#美联储回购协议计划 2026: The Crypto Market from Retail Gaming to Institutional Arena

If the Federal Reserve truly stops shrinking its balance sheet and initiates a rate cut cycle, the holding costs of risk assets will significantly decrease. The upcoming scenario is clear—Bitcoin and Ethereum will become standard components in institutional portfolios, and spot ETFs will become the main channels for capital inflow. The global crypto ETPs are expected to surpass the $400 billion mark, and the circulating market value of stablecoins is also heading towards one trillion dollars.

However, this round of easing has a characteristic: it won't be an "all-in" style of unlimited liquidity. The divergence in global policies combined with fiscal tightening realities mean market volatility will be noticeably lower than before—this actually indicates market maturity rather than a decline in enthusiasm.

Regulatory implementation has become a true game changer. Innovation exemptions in the US are akin to giving compliant institutions a green light, while the EU's MiCA framework regulates the market from another perspective. The coordination between the two sides is clearing obstacles for traditional large institutions. Institutional participation modes are also upgrading—from simple buying to deep involvement across trading, custody, and clearing.

Capital is beginning to seek concentration points. Bitcoin is expected to trade between $120,000 and $170,000, tokenized real assets (RWA), and the integration of AI with blockchain are becoming new growth engines, but the risks associated with less liquid smaller tokens will become increasingly apparent.

By 2026, the crypto market is no longer in the era of hype-driven rallies. Liquidity easing, a完善监管框架, and continuous technological iteration—these three factors combined are leading the market toward rationality. The real opportunities lie in grasping the structural trends of core assets and high-growth sectors.