#数字资产市场动态 Don't be blinded by the hype! The truth behind the 2025 boom in prediction markets

Recently, the momentum in prediction markets has been quite strong—Polymarket and Kalshi are booming, top platforms are flocking in, and everything looks prosperous. But what is the real story behind this? Frankly, it’s a "growth myth" built on capital. They need stories to support valuations, traffic to sustain growth, and you happen to be the "fuel" that attracts it.

The real test will come in 2026. The US midterm elections are not just hot topics; they are a "stress test" that the entire prediction market will face. As traffic explodes, so do the problems—Is there enough trading depth? Could it be manipulated? How will regulators intervene? All these risks ultimately fall on retail investors.

What is a more realistic threat? Information asymmetry. Leading platforms offer more than just users—they have data advantages and complex game rules. While you’re researching events and analyzing odds, the market makers and institutions are watching your behavior—your timing, your amounts, your psychology. The more sports, hot events, and bizarre contracts there are, the murkier the waters become. You think you’re betting against other retail traders, but in reality, you’re playing a game against participants with far more information than you have. They rely on transaction fees and your mistakes.

A few honest words: no matter how impressive the growth figures are, if the money doesn’t flow into your pocket, it’s all just stories. The hotter the event, the more likely it is a coordinated harvest signal. The smartest move is to do nothing when you don’t understand the rules. Your competitiveness isn’t luck; it’s your cognition and information-gathering ability.

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