As of December 27, 2025, 10:30 (UTC+8), ETH is quoted at approximately $2975, with short-term volatility leaning weak and range-bound, the core trading zone between $2940-$3000; during holidays, liquidity is low, so focus on light position trading within the range.

Core Views

• Trend: No strong trend on the 4H chart (ADX<25), price remains under pressure below the 20/50-day moving averages, and the daily chart is still in a downtrend.

• Pattern: 4H converging consolidation, key neckline at 2970, a break below confirms an M-head pattern, targeting 2930-2890.

• Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 23 (Extreme Fear), weekend trading is light, and funds are mostly on the sidelines.

Key Price Levels (USD)

• Support: 2940 (previous low + dense trading) → 2900 (strong support) → 2880 (lower Bollinger Band)

• Resistance: 2985-3000 (20-day SMA) → 3030 (neckline resistance) → 3060 (medium-term strong resistance)

Indicator Overview

• Moving Averages: Price below 20/50-day MA, short-term bias is bearish; weekly trend remains weak.

• MACD (4H): Histogram slightly negative, both lines below zero, selling pressure persists, rebound momentum is insufficient.

• RSI (4H): 43-47, neutral leaning low, no clear overbought or oversold signals, lacks reversal signs.

• Volume: Weekend trading is light; a surge above 3000 or a drop below 2940 could open new space.

Trading Strategies (Actionable)

• Short-term Long: Buy on pullback at 2950 for initial position, add at 2940, average price **<2945**; stop loss at 2900; take profit at 2980→2995.

• Short-term Short: Short at 2985-3000 on rebound; stop loss at 3030; take profit at 2960→2940.

• Position Size: Light trading over the weekend, no more than 10% of total funds per position, strict stop loss; add positions after breakout confirmation.

Trend Trigger Conditions

• Upward Breakout: Hold above 3000 with increased volume, target 3030→3060.

• Downward Breakout: Fall below 2940, target 2900→2880.