The central bank policy script for 2025 is reversing course.

Looking back at the first half of the year, global central banks were still in a frenzy of rate cuts—led by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, with emerging markets following suit, cutting over 3000 basis points. But by the end of the year, the situation has taken a 180-degree turn.

**The current situation is quite divided:**

Central banks in Europe, Norway, Sweden, and others have finished cutting rates and are now "on holiday," with rates remaining unchanged. The Federal Reserve talks about rate cuts, but the hawkish stance is hidden in the dot plot. The UK and Canada have finished their cuts and are now observing, with internal opinions diverging.

Only the Bank of Japan is operating in the opposite direction—raising rates to 0.75% in December, a 30-year high. More importantly, they are hinting at further increases next year.

**What does this imply?**

The era of cheap money that has supported the global financial markets for years is fading. While most central banks choose to hold steady, Japan’s rate hike acts as a "straw" that siphons liquidity from the global markets. Direct impact? High-risk assets that rely on arbitrage trading will feel the squeeze.

The cryptocurrency market is no exception. Tighter liquidity usually first impacts more volatile assets. But from another perspective, when traditional financial liquidity tightens, assets with genuine scarcity and anti-inflation characteristics tend to stand out and gain value.

**The key question is: what does Japan’s continued rate hikes mean for cryptocurrencies?**

A. Direct bearish signal—liquidity withdrawal puts pressure on risk assets
B. Long-term positive—re-pricing of non-sovereign assets
C. Short-term volatility—both risks and opportunities

What’s your view?