#永续合约交易 Seeing traders betting on the Federal Reserve chair candidate, I have to say—this is the prelude signal for perpetual contract liquidation.

Changes in Fed policy indeed affect market liquidity, but the problem is that most people start leveraging up when they see such news, not realizing that this is exactly the trap set by the market makers. Is the probability of Wosh increasing? Fine, traders follow the trend and go long, piling up positions, just waiting for a piece of negative news to hit. I’ve seen too many people get liquidated at the height of "certainty," simply because they ignored the deadly nature of perpetual contracts—the leverage amplifies not only gains but also risks.

The key is to understand that policy expectations are the easiest to manipulate. Before the Fed chair candidate is even decided, market sentiment has already been heavily hyped. At this point, why enter with multiple times leverage? That’s betting that the market makers won’t reverse and dump the price. Experience tells me that the more "consensus" seems to be, the more cautious you should be about liquidation risk.

If you must trade, remember one bottom line: never use more than 3x leverage on perpetual contracts, strictly enforce stop-losses, and proactively reduce positions during policy fluctuations. Longevity is much more realistic than making a big quick profit.