2025-12-27 01:25:14

The Japanese government has just approved a new budget of 122.3 trillion yen, while also announcing that the primary fiscal balance for FY2026 is expected to turn a profit for the first time, with a surplus of 1.34 trillion yen. What does this mean? It will be Japan's first surplus since 1998—almost thirty years ago. Prime Minister Sanae Suga called this a "perfect balance of strong growth and fiscal sustainability."

Sounds good. But the market's reaction has been quite indifferent. Last week, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds soared directly to 2.1%, hitting a 27-year high. On one hand, there is official propaganda about good fiscal news; on the other hand, bond yields are reaching record highs—this contrast is worth pondering.

What is hidden behind these numbers? Record-breaking spending, a significant increase in tax revenue, and a decline in government bond issuance—these factors combined aim to prove a certain logic: economic expansion does not mean fiscal out of control. But the question is, can the local governments' consecutive surpluses truly support the overall national situation? If a supplementary budget is introduced again next year, will all these achievements be wiped clean?

Even more noteworthy is the shift in government rhetoric. Originally emphasizing "primary fiscal surplus," the focus has now shifted to "debt/GDP ratio." Market analysts interpret this indicator rotation as "changing metrics to save face." The goal promised in 2011 has been missed for over ten years—why should the market still believe in it now?

A contest involving confidence and data is unfolding. Massive spending can indeed stimulate the economy in the short term, but whether fiscal discipline can be truly maintained ultimately depends on the market's expectations for Japan's long-term prospects. This wave of expectation changes will inevitably transmit to global financial markets—including the pricing logic of risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

BTC0,17%

ETH0,48%

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AirdropChaser

· 12-27 01:55

Starting to play the number game again, you can tell what it means just by changing the indicator. Using the indicator swap as a face-saving trick, we've seen too many crypto enthusiasts fall for it. The real story is the surge in bond yields; they talk about profits, but the market has already shorted in reverse. Earning once in thirty years, and you still dare to boast? Once the supplementary budget is released next year, it's all over again. Japan's recent moves are just like some project teams—first draw a big pie, then change the rules.

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BlockchainTherapist

· 12-27 01:52

Changing indicators to save face, the market has long seen through this trick haha --- It's easy to say, bond yields don't lie, they reflect the true situation --- Same old trick, it didn't work in 2011, why should we believe it now? --- Short-term stimulus can work, long-term discipline is the real key. Can Japan hold this wave? --- Can local governments' consecutive surpluses support the entire country? Once next year's supplementary budget is out, it's over --- The rhetoric shift is too obvious, from fiscal surplus to debt ratio, this is called "changing indicators to save face" --- Will changing expectations influence the crypto circle? Then we need to watch Bitcoin's trend closely --- Thirty years of first surplus sounds impressive, but the 27-year high in government bond yields is the real core contrast --- The market's indifferent reaction says it all; good numbers don't necessarily mean confidence --- Massive spending to stimulate the economy is short-term anesthesia; the real test is still to come

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MoonRocketman

· 12-27 01:50

Bond yields soaring is the real signal; the official rhetoric has changed face. This move is a classic case of "changing tracks to maintain height," and the market has long seen through it. Switching indicators is indeed a tough move, but it can't escape technical analysis. The RSI has already entered the overbought zone; beware of a gravity pullback. Japan's recent budget bill is like overfilling rocket fuel; it can push prices higher in the short term. Whether it can break through the atmosphere in the long term is the key. I bet ten Bitcoin that this trajectory won't last two years. The market isn't stupid; the tepid response from the bond market indicates that escape velocity isn't fast enough. The shift in expectations will directly influence crypto pricing logic at this turning point. No matter how fancy the rhetoric rotation, it ultimately signals a confidence crisis. This is the final warning before the launch window closes.

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Hash_Bandit

· 12-27 01:49

ngl this metric switching feels like watching a difficulty adjustment that nobody asked for... japan's basically recalibrating which numbers to mine for headlines lol

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