Record options expiry dominates the market and keeps Bitcoin below $90,000

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Record Options Expiry Dominates Market and Keeps Bitcoin Below US$ 90,000 Original Link: https://portaldobitcoin.uol.com.br/vencimento-recorde-de-opcoes-domina-mercado-e-mantem-bitcoin-abaixo-de-us-90-mil/ Bitcoin has once again traded below US$ 90,000, in an environment marked by low liquidity typical of the holiday period, precious metals appreciation, and anticipation of a record options expiry, which has become the main focus in the cryptocurrency market at year-end.

After briefly touching the US$ 90,000 range during Monday’s trading session, BTC lost momentum and retreated to around US$ 87,400 the next day, maintaining a pattern observed in recent weeks, where recovery attempts face almost immediate resistance.

According to Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, market sentiment remains cautious. He states that gains continue to lack support, while declines, though moderate, remain persistent.

The flow of institutional funds reinforced this defensive mood. Spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the United States recorded net outflows of US$ 142 million on December 22. In contrast, products linked to ETH received US$ 84.6 million in inflows, while Solana and XRP ETFs attracted US$ 7.47 million and US$ 43.89 million, respectively.

Record Options Expiry

At the center of attention is the options expiry scheduled for Friday (26), known in many countries as Boxing Day, considered the largest on record. Approximately 300,000 Bitcoin options contracts, equivalent to about US$ 23.7 billion in notional value, are about to expire, representing more than half of all open interest in the cryptocurrency on Deribit.

According to Jean-David Pequignot, commercial director of the platform, the combined expiry of Bitcoin and Ethereum options reaches US$ 28.5 billion, nearly double the volume observed at the same period last year. Despite the magnitude, he states that the market remains relatively organized, with Bitcoin’s implied volatility index, DVOL, around 45.

Key positions are concentrated at strike prices of US$ 85,000 and US$ 100,000. For Pequignot, this structure indicates a residual optimism regarding a possible year-end rally, although investor conviction appears limited. Average funding rates also increased from 0.04% to 0.09%, signaling a rise in leveraged long positions, even in a more liquidity-constrained environment.

QCP Capital observed that many traders have preferred to close positions rather than roll them over. The firm reports that open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts fell by about US$ 3 billion overnight, while Ethereum saw a reduction close to US$ 2 billion. For QCP, the liquidity contraction raises the risk of sharp price movements, both upward and downward.

Both Misir and QCP highlight that typical Christmas week movements tend to lose strength in January, when market participation increases again. This suggests that current fluctuations are more mechanical than based on structural changes.

While the cryptocurrency market seeks direction, gold moved in the opposite direction and surged to a new record near US$ 4,450. According to Misir, this divergence highlights the return of demand for macroeconomic protection at year-end amid global political uncertainties.

President Donald Trump confirmed he will announce the name chosen to lead the Federal Reserve by early January. Although not seen as an immediate market trigger, the topic helps reinforce investors’ defensive positioning until greater clarity emerges.