2025-12-27 01:23:55

By the end of 2025, Bitcoin is trading in the $87,000-$88,000 range, nearly 30% below the $126,000 all-time high set in October. The mid-December crash was even more brutal, instantly wiping out 160,000 traders' positions.

With 2026 approaching, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads—can it break free from the curse of the four-year cycle? Or will it continue to dance to this rhythm? The answer to this question is actually hidden in the tug-of-war between two forces.

On one side is the influence of the halving cycle itself. Historical data shows that this four-year cycle has a significant impact on the price movement. But on the other side, new variables like macroeconomic conditions, policy directions, and market sentiment are quietly rewriting the rules of the game.

BTC0,17%

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TokenAlchemist

· 12-27 03:40

the halving cycle narrative is honestly so overplayed... macro vectors are actually doing the heavy lifting here, 16w liquidations tell you everything about leverage inefficiency in these markets. four-year magic? nah, that's just pattern recognition cope when you can't model the actual state transitions properly.

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LiquidatedTwice

· 12-27 01:54

160,000 people getting liquidated, I didn't follow that wave. Luckily, or else I'd have to review a bunch of crap again. Can 2026 break the curse? I think it's doubtful. The cycle theory has been talked about for many years, and the old tricks are still the same. The macro environment has indeed changed, but the temperament of the crypto circle hasn't changed. Let's see how it goes after the halving. Anyway, I've already laid back. The curse can't be broken; we can only learn to dance with it. The problem is, no one knows when the rhythm will change.

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MagicBean

· 12-27 01:54

When 160,000 people got liquidated, I knew right then that this market movement was definitely not simple. No matter how much I try to explain, it's just that four-year cycle, but now the macro environment has changed. Can it really repeat? A drop of 126,000, how strong must the mentality be? I just went all in and lay flat. The curse thing—believe in it and you win, don't believe and you lose. It belongs to Schrödinger's market. I'm tired of hearing about the halving cycle; the key still depends on how the Federal Reserve plays its cards. This round is really fierce; even 87,000 feels unstable. Can we turn things around by 2026? I dare not go all-in again; the last lesson was too deep. When macro policies change face, all theories about cycles are just talk; we can only grope in the dark. Is there an old friend on the liquidation list? Let's keep pushing together. Four-year curse? I think it's just testing the bottom.

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CryptoMom

· 12-27 01:53

From 126 to 87, this drop really blew my mind. When 160,000 people got liquidated, I was completely stunned. Cycle curse? Feels like every time they say the cycle is broken, but in the end, you can't escape the palm of the hand. No matter how many macro policy variables there are, ultimately, it's all about funds and sentiment. Anyway, I just hold on tight and see what happens. A four-year cycle, this wave is really hard to predict. It might just repeat the same script, but maybe the opportunity is in despair. If you ask me, don't think too much. Keeping a steady mindset is more important than anything. That 16,000 people who got liquidated just couldn't hold back.

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gm_or_ngmi

· 12-27 01:53

When 160,000 people get liquidated, I knew it was time to buy the dip again haha --- From 126k to 87k, this drop is incredible... But honestly, the cycle theory should have been broken long ago --- Halving cycle? Laughing out loud, what really affects the price now is no longer that --- The crossroads... It’s just about watching the Federal Reserve’s moves, no need to be so mysterious --- That brutal sell-off in December, the ones who bought the dip are probably laughing their heads off now --- The four-year curse theory is outdated, this time the situation is completely different --- Buying the dip at 88k or continuing to fall, that’s what I care about --- Every time they say the cycle will break, and then... I just watch quietly --- Bro at 160,000 liquidation, it’s that time of year again for the big harvest show --- Policy variables? Macro environment? Honestly, it’s still the whales manipulating the market

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LightningLady

· 12-27 01:49

160,000 people wiped out in an instant, that must be so painful. Just imagining it makes me feel for them. 126k has dropped so much now, where's the promised perpetual rise? The curse is just a curse. Is the halving cycle really that effective? It feels like there are too many variables now, macro movements cause the price to dance wildly. Is a new four-year cycle coming again? Forget it, I don't want to think about it anymore. Just keep dollar-cost averaging. From 126k to 87k, how many people have been caught bottom-fishing and ended up with shrapnel...

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GetRichLeek

· 12-27 01:41

I haven't even gotten my $126,000, and I'm still holding on to the $88,000 loss, laughing to death. Historical cycles? I just want to know who can accurately grasp them. Anyway, I always jump in at the right time. On the day 160,000 people got liquidated, I was also there, but I was short on margin, haha. Macro policies are all虚的 (虚的 means虚幻,虚无,虚空,虚假,虚拟,虚伪,虚弱,虚张声势,虚无缥缈,虚无缥缈的,虚无缥缈的), we should look at on-chain data to speak, right? Halving cycles are all虚的, I now only trust technical support and chip distribution. Why does it feel like I have to go through a crash every time to learn my lesson, then start FOMO again? Buying the dip at $88,000 resulted in heavy losses—that's my 2025 summary. If Bitcoin drops another 10%, I'll add to my position. Anyway, I've already lost heavily.

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PerennialLeek

· 12-27 01:33

160,000 people liquidated, this time really brutal, it feels like we're entering another cut-your-losses day Whether the four-year curse is broken or not depends on how the Federal Reserve plays From 126 to 87, such a drop is hard to withstand, those who should have cut losses long ago are now bottom fishing I'm tired of the halving cycle rhetoric, it all depends on policy trends Another crossroads? It feels like every year is a crossroads, and yet we're still being harvested This round, my mentality is really collapsing, let's wait for a rebound signal The curse sounds nice, but it's actually just a routine where capital is harvesting retail investors, a familiar formula New policy variables? Isn't it just waiting for interest rate cuts, too obvious

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