This wave of Solana's rebound is a bit strange. While other coins rebound with great momentum, it keeps fluctuating back and forth, even being pressed down tightly by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. From a technical perspective, this is almost a textbook case of a short seller.

Recently, many people I’ve communicated with are asking the same question—does Solana’s performance indicate that the entire crypto market is about to top out? Instead of giving a vague answer, let’s analyze together what is really happening behind Solana’s movement.

**Market Logic Behind the Surface Data**

Many focus on price movements—up or down—but the true determinant of direction is the trend. Solana is currently in a typical weak downtrend—lows are gradually shifting lower, and each rebound is weaker than the last. This is not an isolated phenomenon but a direct reflection of the market’s diminishing confidence in this project. The pressure from the middle Bollinger Band is just superficial; fundamentally, funds are continuously flowing out, and market sentiment is cooling down.

**The Real Dilemma of Capital Flows**

Why are funds exiting? It’s not just Solana bleeding; the entire crypto market is under pressure from capital outflows. There are two key variables: first, the increasing frequency of regulatory actions by the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, with uncertainty before policies are implemented causing many funds to stay on the sidelines; second, the crypto ETF drama in October is about to unfold, and participants are waiting for clear signals at this point, unwilling to go all-in blindly. The prevailing wait-and-see attitude naturally makes Solana’s rebound weak.

**Next Technical Support Levels**

On the operational level, focus should be on the support zone at 120-118. Whether this area can hold will determine the nature of the subsequent trend.