Your DeFi position was suddenly liquidated. Looking at those numbers on the screen, everything seems perfectly reasonable. But you may not realize that behind this seemingly precise facade, a oracle system pursuing "pseudo-determinism" is cracking.

Over the past two years, more than billions of dollars have disappeared in DeFi liquidations. What's even more heartbreaking is that at the time of these tragedies, the price data provided by oracles was technically usually flawless. The real problem isn't the data itself, but the industry's fundamental misunderstanding of "certainty."

What do traditional oracles think? They give you a single precise number, like the "current price" of Bitcoin, and then protocols and users treat it as gospel. But in reality, the market doesn't operate that way. Fragmented liquidity, asynchronous trading, probabilistic fluctuations—these are the true face of the market. During major market moves, price differences between exchanges can reach thousands of dollars.

This is the crux of the issue: those oracles desperately chasing certainty are actually creating an illusion of certainty.

And how deadly is this illusion? Try this—downstream protocols set rigid trigger thresholds, such as liquidation when the collateralization ratio drops to 150%, and blindly trust that this mechanism is completely reliable. But the market will never play out according to the protocol's script.

Now, a new approach is gaining traction: instead of eliminating uncertainty, it’s better to acknowledge it, embrace it, and design the entire system around it. This shift in thinking might be the true way forward for the next generation of DeFi.