1. Market Overview Based on the latest candlestick data, ETH's current price is 2924.8 (referencing the most recent 14-day daily candlestick closing price). Over the past 14 days, ETH has shown a volatile downward trend, with a high point at 3327.37 fourteen days ago. In the last two days, prices have remained in the 2900-3000 range, indicating downward pressure. Recently, daily trading volume peaked at 520510, but over the past week, volume has generally decreased, with yesterday's volume dropping to 2303.45, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment among traders. The 48-hour hourly candlestick chart shows range-bound oscillation, with price fluctuations mainly between 2920-2970, lacking clear short-term trend guidance. Combined with market news and analyst opinions, current market sentiment is cautious. Multiple news reports highlight that ETH has yet to firmly break the 3000 USD level, with weak momentum for a strong rebound, and insufficient liquidity and structural support dampening investor enthusiasm. Analysts note that after short-term gains, market bulls quickly exit, with main funds observing, and the overall focus on the possibility of breaking key resistance levels.

2. Technical Analysis The 14-day candlestick data shows ETH's high at 3327.37 and low at 2775.19, with extremely volatile fluctuations. The recent downtrend is clear, especially after breaking below 3180, with prices closing below 3000 for several consecutive days. Short-term strong support is at 2828.57 (recent daily low), with secondary support at 2775.19. Resistance levels are concentrated at 3009.48 and 3035.79, requiring increased volume to break through. In the past 48 hours, ETH has tested the 2920 support multiple times, with rebounds reaching only up to 2938.83, failing to break the 2950 resistance. Hourly trading volume fluctuates significantly, with a single hour reaching 41402.8 in high volume, mostly during downward moves with increased volume, while rebounds lack sufficient momentum. The short-term hourly trend shows a rebound resistance pattern, with range-bound oscillation but no clear breakout in volume.

3. News and Policy Interpretation Recent news indicates that the market is focused on Ethereum ETFs and their impact on liquidity structure, but many emphasize that the market remains in a correction and consolidation phase. Several reports mention options expiration and large losses causing market pressure, with descriptions such as "Ethereum reclaims the 3000 USD level intraday" and "on-chain liquidity remains sluggish," all reflecting ongoing sideways and downward movement on the candlestick charts. Positive news like ETFs has not generated substantial upward momentum, instead leading to market confidence erosion after high-level adjustments. On the policy front, no new policy information has been disclosed, and prices are not directly influenced or constrained by policy; market trading relies more on technical support and macro fund flows.

4. Analyst Opinions Summary Analysts' original comments are as follows: “Contract strategy specific product: ETH directional: Long entry point: 2960-2970 stop-loss: 2905 take-profit: 3083.” “Add crypto channel #ETH (limit order) EP: 2985-3015 TP: 2920-2860-2800 SL: 3055 #ETH approaching double!” Most of these strategies focus on long positions within the 2960-2985 range, with short-term stop-loss set at 2905-2920, targeting 3083, indicating some analysts are cautiously optimistic about a rebound from oversold conditions. However, based on actual candlestick movements, ETH's maximum rebound was at 2971.62, then it declined and broke below 2930 support multiple times. The actual trend did not reach the targeted 3083 as analysts hoped; instead, it approached the stop-loss level, showing continuous resistance to bullish entry and limited effectiveness of the strategies. Another analyst advises close risk monitoring and not holding overnight positions, reflecting a lack of confidence in the rebound.

5. Future Trend Forecast and Trading Suggestions Combining current candlestick patterns and analyst strategies, ETH's short-term trend remains weak and oscillatory. Resistance is concentrated around 2950-2970; if volume increases and it stabilizes above this zone, testing the 3000-3035 resistance is possible. Conversely, if it continues to fall below 2920-2905, the downward space could revisit previous lows at 2828.57 or even 2775.19. Recent volatility has gradually narrowed; intra-day trading should focus on the 2910-2970 range, with strict stop-loss enforcement. Trading advice: conservative investors can reduce positions when below 2950 and wait for stronger support confirmation. Aggressive traders may follow analyst suggestions to buy low between 2905-2925 for short-term gains, with targets at 2960 and 2970. If it falls below 2900, exit decisively. High leverage or overnight positions are not recommended to avoid risks from sudden sharp movements.

6. Risk Warning From the recent 14-day to 48-hour candlestick movements, ETH has experienced intense wave fluctuations, with a maximum range exceeding 500 points and frequent breakdowns. Trading volume continues to decline, indicating waning participation and increased divergence in bullish and bearish expectations. If volume does not quickly increase to break resistance levels, further downside is possible. Close attention should be paid to the key supports at 2920 and 2828.57, with strict stop-loss measures. Avoid chasing highs or selling lows impulsively, and be alert to potential rapid declines if the range breaks.