I. Market Overview The current BTC market environment shows significant weak oscillation characteristics. According to the latest daily candlestick data, BTC's latest closing price is $87,290.3, which is the current reference market price. Over the past 14 trading days, the high was at $89,567.8, and the low at $86,655.1, with the fluctuation range narrowing, and short-term volatility remaining relatively low. Daily trading volume has sharply contracted in the past two days, with the most recent day’s volume only 72.37 coins, hitting a new cycle low, indicating a weakening market trading sentiment. Combined with the latest 48-hour candlestick data, BTC quickly retreated from around $88,700 to below $87,000 and repeatedly moved sideways, showing a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers with an unclear direction. From news and analyst perspectives, mainstream voices are cautious about the market. News reports emphasize that BTC has been repeatedly blocked below $90,000, investor sentiment is insufficient, and “tensions have escalated again,” directly leading to continued price pressure. Additionally, according to analysts’ original comments, “Tired of wandering day after day, if you say it’s going up, it’s only a little and sometimes very quickly; if you say it’s going down, it just stalls after falling. I think this dog’s market is no longer absorbing.” This indicates that major market participants are skeptical about the trend’s momentum, mainly observing.

II. Technical Analysis Based on 14-day candlestick and the latest 48-hour candlestick analysis, BTC continues to be in a converging downward trend. The daily high points are gradually shifting downward, with the recent high at $89,567.8 and the low remaining above $86,655.1. The main support zone is around $86,600-$87,000, and the price has not effectively broken below this range recently, showing clear signs of short-term stabilization. Resistance levels are referenced at recent highs of $88,700-$89,500; without a breakthrough, substantial rebound is unlikely. Regarding volume, daily trading volume has shrunk from 12,242.3 coins to the hundreds, combined with sideways price movement, reflecting a significant decline in short-term buying strength. Hourly observations show repeated large transactions within the $86,800-$87,300 range, with multiple rebounds near $86,700 and repeated resistance near $88,700. The short-term price center of gravity is shifting downward, but no one-way breakout has occurred. Indicators like MACD and RSI, due to the lack of raw data, cannot be precisely measured, but combined with price-volume trends, the trend remains weak with some support below.

III. News and Policy Interpretation Based on mainstream industry news, most focus on main capital observation, large transfers by end-of-term institutions, and external macro risks. Reports indicate that “since most assets have reached local support levels, this will lay the foundation for a moderate recovery, and the market may be ready for a long-term reversal,” but also mention “oversupply and price squeeze, with institutions repeatedly testing $90,000 without success.” Some news continues to focus on geopolitical and policy risks, such as “U.S.-China tensions disrupting global markets, causing BTC prices to decline,” which is validated by rapid drops in actual candlestick charts. On the policy front, data shows no new crypto-related policies in the past 24 hours, recent week, or past month, only signals like “SEC pushing reforms, CFTC gaining influence,” but these have not directly catalyzed BTC spot price movements. Therefore, macro policies currently have limited impact on BTC’s trend, which is more driven by internal market supply, demand, and sentiment.

IV. Analyst Opinions Summary From the latest analyst views, there is a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with strategic trading dominating. “BTC orders are adding longs, forced liquidation controlled below $60,000, 80,888x leverage, 3% margin stop-loss,” “Long positions controlled below $60,000, near $88,700, entering at 100x leverage with 2% margin, take profit at $91,500-$93,000-$94,000, stop loss at $85,000,” etc., focusing on low buying and high selling around the $87,000-$88,700 range with strict stop-losses for short-term positioning. This aligns with candlestick tests of support at $87,000 and resistance above $88,700. Another view states: “If you say it’s going up, it’s only a little and sometimes very quickly; if you say it’s going down, it just stalls after falling. I think this dog’s market is no longer absorbing.” indicating frequent oscillations and difficulty in forming a one-sided trend, advising high caution.

V. Future Trend Prediction and Trading Suggestions Combining current candlestick patterns, volume, and analyst opinions, BTC remains in a short-term weak oscillation, with support at $86,600-$87,000 and resistance at $88,700-$89,500. If volume breaks above $89,500, it may challenge above $90,000. Conversely, if it falls below $86,600, further decline toward around $85,000 is possible. Short-term investors are advised to continue monitoring buying opportunities near $87,000, but strictly set stop-loss at $85,000, with rebound targets in the $88,000-$89,000 range. Do not chase high before a clear breakout above resistance. The medium- to long-term direction remains unclear; position control and close attention to volume changes are recommended, as a volume surge could signal a new trend.

VI. Risk Reminder BTC is currently in a phase of extremely contracted volume and sideways price movement. A sudden volume breakout below $86,600 could trigger stop-loss cascades, intensify volatility, and easily lead to “bottoming out and consolidating” within a range. Short-term participation requires strict stop-loss placement to avoid unnecessary losses from consolidation shakeouts. External macro factors, geopolitical, or regulatory uncertainties remain key variables. High leverage trading at current levels carries significant risk; rational control is essential to prevent losses from irrational fluctuations.

Conclusion: BTC is likely to oscillate at low levels in the short term, with a focus on the $86,600-$89,500 range. Blindly chasing highs or lows is not recommended; strict risk management and stop-loss strategies should be implemented. Flexibly buying low and selling high within the range is more reasonable.