The "interest rate cut party" among global central banks in 2025 suddenly came to an abrupt halt. At the beginning of the year, there was a collective "liquidity injection," but by the end of the year, it turned into a tangled mess—some continue to wait and see, some still want to cut further, only the Bank of Japan stubbornly raised interest rates, leaving the entire market stunned.

Let's first look at the craziness of this year's rate cuts: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand started cutting from the beginning of the year, and major central banks like the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England also followed suit with easing measures—this is the largest collective easing since the financial crisis. Emerging markets are even more exaggerated, directly cutting over 3000 basis points. Originally, everyone bet that the global economy would "lie flat" together, but who knew a big reversal would come by year's end.

The current landscape can be divided into three camps:

**First camp: Already stopped and entered a wait-and-see mode.** After the European Central Bank cut rates, it hasn't moved since mid-year, with deposit rates firmly fixed at 2.0%. The central banks of Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway also chose to hold steady, collectively entering a "wait and see" mode.

**Second camp: Still hesitating whether to continue cutting.** Although the Federal Reserve cut another 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% at the end of the year, internal disagreements are severe, and the outlook for 2026 only dares to say one more cut, with a clearly hawkish attitude. The Bank of England also started to speak of "caution." Countries like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, after cutting rates, immediately shifted to a wait-and-see stance, clearly indicating internal disagreements among the "rate-cutting camp."

**Third camp: The Bank of Japan defies expectations with a rate hike.** The entire world is easing money, but the Bank of Japan insists on the opposite—raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years. The central bank governor also made bold remarks: if the economy and inflation develop as expected, rate hikes will continue. This approach is simply "everyone else is drunk, I alone am sober."

From an investment perspective, this polarization of central bank policies will reshape asset allocation in 2026. The US dollar and the British pound may continue to be under pressure due to their relatively dovish stance, while the yen could have a turnaround opportunity due to the rate hike. Assets related to Japan are worth paying attention to. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, remains attractive during periods of policy divergence.

As the tide of rate cuts recedes, a new cycle of central bank policies is just beginning. Whether you can seize this wave of change depends crucially on your understanding of each country's monetary stance. The future trajectory of BTC and other cryptocurrencies in this macro environment is also worth continuous observation.