A recent unexpected signal has caught the market off guard: Japanese Finance Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that this long-standing deficit-budget country might achieve its first primary budget surplus in 28 years next year. Where is the promised "debt perpetual motion machine"? What does this shift imply?

Let's look at two key changes. First, the fiscal stance has suddenly tightened. After years of sustained stimulus, Japan is returning to a surplus track, which is a direct positive for the yen's confidence—market concerns over Japanese debt may be reassessed. Second, there are clear signs of cooling inflation. Tokyo's December CPI year-over-year dropped to 2.0%, with core inflation continuing to decline, easing the Bank of Japan's pressure to raise interest rates.

But here’s a paradox: although the yen should benefit from improved fiscal expectations, its actual performance remains weak. In this environment, global funds are beginning to adjust their allocation strategies. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is regaining attractiveness; meanwhile, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are also becoming part of hedging tools, especially those built on low transaction fee networks with ample liquidity, which have become key focus points for traders.

The real game-changer still lies in the United States. The Trump administration's "America First" growth policies combined with tariffs are reshaping global capital flows. Japan's fiscal "braking" aims to stabilize domestic economic expectations while also adapting to external shocks from U.S. policy changes.

An economy that once experienced a 28-year surge in deficits now needs to tighten its fiscal policy. Ahead lies a balancing act between inflation and employment, with the uncertainty of U.S. policy shifts looming. The relative strength of Bitcoin, gold, and the yen may determine the true direction of safe-haven capital flows next. What do you think of Japan’s shift—long-term strategic adjustment or a fleeting signal?