#永续合约交易 Seeing the name Wosh is heating up again, and traders are increasingly adding bets on perpetual contracts. This reminds me of 2016, when every change in the Federal Reserve chairperson's appointment led the market to start pricing in advance — back then, we were still analyzing every word of the FOMC meeting minutes, afraid of missing a subtle nuance.

The cycle of history always leaves clues. From Bernanke to Yellen, and then to Powell, each transition has been accompanied by volatility in the crypto market. What does Wosh represent? Compared to Powell's more hawkish tone, this could mean a tighter policy environment for the crypto space. But traders' reactions are often faster than analysts' conclusions — they are betting on perpetual contracts, essentially using leverage to express their expectations of the liquidity environment.

I've seen too many such scenarios. At the end of 2017, whenever there was a hint of regulatory policy change, leverage positions would fluctuate wildly. Those who bet correctly would laugh last in the cycle, while those who bet wrong would become part of history. The current question is, are traders betting on Wosh's rise to gamble on a friendly policy, or are they just following the herd sentiment? Behind the recent boom in perpetual contracts over the past two years, what I see is often not well-thought-out hedging, but leveraged speculation chasing short-term gains.

The change of Fed chair is a macro event, but it tests whether you truly understand the logic behind the cycle, rather than just chasing the surge of market sentiment.