#比特币投资配置 Seeing Nic Carter's article, it reminded me of the conversation we had in a coffee shop in 2016. Back then, we were discussing whether Bitcoin could replace fiat currency, and our eyes were shining with excitement. Now, eight years later, Ken's statement "I built a casino" indeed hit the nail on the head.

But my perspective differs somewhat from his. He sees disillusionment; I see the inevitable cost.

Looking back over these years, we have indeed undergone a transformation from idealism to realism. The grand narrative in the early days that "Bitcoin will revolutionize finance" now sounds somewhat naive. But that doesn't mean the direction was wrong; it just means the road is longer and more complex than we imagined. I agree with the "five goals" framework mentioned in the article—restoring sound money, smart contract coding, digital property rights, capital market efficiency, and financial inclusion. The reality is, we won't succeed in all dimensions simultaneously, but we have already seen real results in some narrow areas.

Speculation and gambling have indeed become rampant; this is the cost of an permissionless system. But from another perspective, it is precisely this "barbaric growth" that has laid the infrastructure and liquidity foundation for truly viable applications like Bitcoin, stablecoins, and DEXs. The bubbles of the past gave rise to today's technology.

Regarding Bitcoin allocation, my advice has always been consistent: this is not an all-in gamble, but part of a long-term asset portfolio. When you accept the reality that "the world is unlikely to suddenly fully adopt Bitcoin," you can more rationally assess its value—as a store of value, a hedge, and a foundation for financial inclusion.

Don't be dragged down by disillusionment, but also don't be blindly optimistic. Pragmatic optimism is the attitude this industry truly needs.