#数字资产市场动态 $BTC $SUI $AT

Japan's Fiscal Policy Makes Its First Major Shift in 28 Years: From Continuous Deficit to Budget Surplus

Japan's Finance Minister, Sanae Takaichi, recently signaled that Japan may achieve its first primary budget surplus in 28 years next year. This news is enough to shake the markets: an economy that has relied on debt issuance and loose monetary policy to sustain growth suddenly announces plans to tighten its purse strings.

Two hidden message lines worth noting:

**Policy Signal Reversal**
From "debt cycle" to surplus target, if truly implemented, the yen will face upward pressure. This means the global assessment of Japan's fiscal sustainability will change dramatically, and this re-evaluation process is often accompanied by sharp exchange rate fluctuations and capital flow adjustments.

**Inflation Data Softening**
Tokyo's December CPI dropped to 2.0%, giving the Bank of Japan room to adjust its policies. However, the yen remains relatively weak in international markets, reflecting that the market is still waiting for clearer policy signals.

**Repricing of Crypto and Safe-Haven Assets**

The yen's weakness has not reversed, and funds continue to flow into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin, as well as assets within the Ethereum ecosystem that have low Gas fees and high volatility. These low-liquidity assets attract aggressive traders but also amplify risks.

**Variables in the Global Macro Environment**

U.S. policy shifts will directly influence all of this. A strong growth target combined with trade protectionism tendencies will reconfigure global capital flows. Japan's fiscal tightening this time is not only driven by internal needs but also a response to external pressures.

**Key Questions**

A long-term deficit economy suddenly hitting the brakes faces a fog of deflation ahead, alongside uncertainties in major power policies—whether this brake is strong enough, the market is still waiting for answers. If your asset allocation includes yen exposure or Japan-related assets, now is the time to review your risk exposure.