#永续合约交易 Recently, traders have been increasing their bets on the Fed Chair nomination, which reminded me of an old story: a friend once pushed his position to the limit based on a market rumor, only to see his account shrink after a policy shift. That was when he realized how dangerous it is to bet on a single event.

Leverage in perpetual contracts can indeed amplify gains, but it also magnifies risks infinitely. Political personnel changes and policy expectations are inherently uncertain events. Even if the probability of Kevin Warsh becoming Fed Chair rises, there's no guarantee that the market will react as we expect. Moreover, many variables are changing throughout this process.

My advice is, if you have a viewpoint, consider participating with a position you can afford to lose. The most tempting aspect of perpetual contracts is also the most dangerous — it makes us feel like we can hedge everything. But true safety comes from, regardless of whether your bets are right or wrong, your account can continue to support you in the long run.

In the long term, truly profitable people never rely on a single event or the accuracy of predictions. They depend on clear position management and honest awareness of their risk tolerance. In the high-leverage world of perpetual contracts, maintaining caution and patience is actually the most prudent approach.