THE XRP CHRISTMAS SETUP: DUAL DIVERGENCES AND $200M IN WHALE BUYING TARGET A BREAKOUT ABOVE $1.98

As the 2025 holiday season concludes, XRP is showing early technical signs of a potential “Christmas Miracle.” While the asset remains down nearly 17% over the last 30 days, three distinct clues dual bullish divergences in momentum and volume, combined with $200 million in fresh whale accumulation suggest that the selling pressure is finally exhausting. However, for this setup to take flight, bulls must decisively clear the $1.98 resistance, a level that has acted as a formidable ceiling throughout the month of December. I. Momentum and Money Flow Join the Festive Choir The case for an XRP reversal is built on a disconnect between falling prices and improving underlying metrics: Bullish RSI Divergence: Between early November and late December, XRP’s price formed clear lower lows. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) produced higher lows during the same period. This classic bullish divergence indicates that while the price was dropping, the downward momentum was actually weakening, signaling an impending reversal attempt.Money Flow Rotation: The Money Flow Index (MFI) has also printed a bullish divergence, suggesting that dip-buying pressure has been building since late November. The MFI has recently exited “deeply oversold” territory, confirming that capital is beginning to rotate back into the asset. II. Whales Return Like Cautious Reindeer On-chain data confirms that large-scale investors are beginning to move back into position, albeit with measured caution: The $200 Million Injection: Since December 22, the second-largest whale cohort (100M–1B XRP) added roughly 120 million tokens, while the 10M–100M cohort added another 20 million. Together, this represents approximately $200 million in fresh institutional-tier demand.Structural Support: This cautious accumulation by whales provides a “spine” to the current price floor. By adding while the price is near local lows, these large holders are effectively betting on the validity of the technical reversal signals seen on the daily charts. III. Conclusion and Boxing Day Outlook The short-term outlook for XRP is one of a “sleigh on the runway” awaiting its takeoff signal. The technical setup is in place, but the price must follow through to avoid a seasonal slump. The Breakout Target ($1.98): This level has capped every recovery attempt since mid-December. A daily close above $1.98 would signal a real breakout, opening the path toward $2.12 and potentially $2.23.The Invalidation Floor ($1.77): This level has served as the ultimate structural anchor since October. A breakdown below $1.77 would signal that the bulls have lost the season and that a deeper correction is likely.Final Take: XRP is currently holding its ground with improving momentum and fresh whale backing. If the $1.98 hurdle is cleared, the “Christmas tailwinds” could finally push the asset back into a bullish trend as we enter 2026. ⚠️ Important Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.