2025-12-26 23:30:35

Looking back at how gold moved in the first decade after ETF approval—from 2004 to 2014—raises an interesting mirror question: what actually drives Bitcoin's price?

The market seems genuinely confused about this. Is BTC tracking equities and risk sentiment? Does it respond to inflation expectations? Could it be tied to dollar strength, or maybe copper and commodity cycles? Nobody seems to have a definitive answer.

Gold's ETF-era performance offers a case study, but Bitcoin's correlation matrix keeps shifting. Sometimes it moves with tech stocks and risk assets, other times it diverges completely. Currency fluctuations appear to matter, yet aren't consistent predictors. Even broader macro signals—from inflation data to Fed policy—show spotty correlation at best.

The real puzzle is whether Bitcoin is still finding its true price discovery mechanism, or if it genuinely operates on a different set of variables than traditional assets. Maybe the honest answer is that market participants haven't reached consensus yet, and BTC remains a multi-factor instrument still being priced by the market.

BTC0,61%

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

19 Likes

Reward
19
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

Web3ExplorerLin

· 12-27 12:38

honestly the correlation matrix thing is just cope at this point... btc doing whatever it wants and we're all just making up stories to feel smart about it lol

Reply0

bridgeOops

· 12-27 11:42

To be honest, I think comparing Bitcoin to gold is a bit of a stretch. Gold at least has thousands of years of trust backing it, while BTC is purely based on consensus. Today’s rise might be because of Musk’s Twitter, and tomorrow’s fall could be due to a single news event.

View OriginalReply0

FortuneTeller42

· 12-27 00:00

To be honest, Bitcoin is like Schrödinger's asset; no one can predict it accurately.

View OriginalReply0

SignatureVerifier

· 12-26 23:58

honestly the correlation matrix thing is the only part worth discussing here. everything else is just mainstream cope trying to rationalize what they can't model. btc's price discovery is *still* fundamentally broken—requires further auditing before we accept any of these frameworks, technically speaking.

Reply0

DegenMcsleepless

· 12-26 23:57

To be honest, this is a good question, but the answer has long been known—it's just that no one dares to say it.

View OriginalReply0

WealthCoffee

· 12-26 23:51

To be honest, these people in the crypto circle haven't even figured out what BTC is actually linked to, and they keep discussing macro factors, risk appetite... it's hilarious. It's just like gambling, there's no need to make it so complicated.

View OriginalReply0

StableGeniusDegen

· 12-26 23:45

Honestly, who can really explain what Bitcoin is doing? Anyway, I can't understand it.

View OriginalReply0

HashRateHermit

· 12-26 23:42

ngl Bitcoin is just a Schrödinger's asset; its rise or fall depends entirely on market sentiment.

View OriginalReply0