Every market cycle tests traders' psychology. When prices are falling, hope seems scarce; when prices are rising, it's easy to chase the top. The truly profitable traders often don't care about short-term fluctuations but instead focus on research when the market is ignored and stay calm when enthusiasm is high.

By analyzing BTC's technicals, you can understand the current real situation. On the 4-hour chart, after encountering strong resistance at 89,500, the price started to decline with increased volume. It has now returned to the middle-lower part of the previous range. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands has shifted from rising to flat and even slightly downward, indicating that short-term upward momentum is clearly weakening. The market logic has shifted from a single-sided rally to a "oscillation with a bias to the downside"—this signal is very clear.

Looking at the 1-hour cycle, although there was a consolidation with decreasing volume after a continuous decline, the rebound appears weak. Several key moving averages are all arranged downward, which essentially indicates a technical retracement during a downtrend, not a trend reversal. The chart provides two clear signals: the resistance zone above has been recognized and reinforced by the market, and during the decline, volume was present, but during the rebound, volume was absent. This divergence between volume and price clearly indicates that the bears are in control.

In such a technical environment, the most rational strategy is to wait. Wait for the price to rebound near key resistance levels before establishing short positions. Any upward movement without volume support should not be seen as a reversal signal; blindly going long is too risky. In the face of the trend, defense is always more valuable than offense.

Operational references:
- Consider short positions around 88,000 for BTC, with a target of 85,000
- Consider short positions around 2,970 for ETH, with a target of 2,700