2025-12-26 23:22:02

The market has been so quiet in recent days that it's almost uncomfortable. In chat groups, everyone is itching to see Bitcoin drop, and as soon as the news of the Bank of Japan's rate hike came out, the chatter exploded: "Shorts are full, just waiting for the waterfall." Everyone seems to have taken a reassurance pill, thinking a collapse is inevitable, eager to see a bloodbath in the market tomorrow.

The question is: when will the big players truly follow the majority's script?

**1. Extreme emotions are often a reversal signal**

Looking at the data: the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 16, which is "extreme fear." Over 70% of leveraged longs on the entire network have been liquidated, and retail investors have cut their losses completely. In such a situation, what does historical law tell us? When everyone is overwhelmingly bearish, the market often suddenly turns bullish with a strong upward move. Think back to the 2020 crash—after March 12, Bitcoin reversed and surged 17 times. Currently, whales are already starting to accumulate at the $92,000–$95,000 range, and on-chain data shows signs of lurking.

**2. The Japanese rate hike isn't that scary**

The Bank of Japan raised rates by 0.75%, and the market is lamenting that "global liquidity is about to dry up." But a closer look reveals a different story. Japan's economy contracted in Q3, and inflation is being sustained mainly by imported prices. The rate hike was actually a reluctant response under pressure. The Federal Reserve's rate-cut cycle isn't over yet, and it's uncertain whether dollar liquidity is tight or not.

What truly impacts liquidity is the U.S. Treasury: the government shutdown has caused the TGA account to hold $1 trillion in cash. When the government reopens, this money will flood into the market, effectively injecting liquidity. Smart big players might be using this negative news to shake out retail investors, making their losses more thorough before pushing the market up again.

**3. Don't be fooled by the noise**

Nearly 50,000 people have been liquidated in this downturn. How many "big V" influencers do you see posting daily about their positions? Their livelihood depends on traffic; the more alarming the news, the more attention they get. In this age of information overload, learning to discern signals is more important than blindly following the crowd.

BTC0,53%

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FOMOSapien

· 3h ago

It's the same old story, every time they say "reversal signal," and what happens? My short position was already at 9.8 a long time ago. Watching this rebound now is just ridiculous. Honestly, on-chain data can be fabricated by anyone. The story of whales absorbing the supply is told year after year. I just want to know why this time it won't continue to crash. I agree with the set of posts from big influencers, but your analysis logic isn't that strong either, isn't it just another way of selling anxiety? People are trading themselves crazy, and those who stay calm are actually rare. That’s the most dangerous signal. I'm tired of cutting losses, now I don't believe anything, just waiting to see how the spot market moves.

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Ser_APY_2000

· 12-26 23:52

Here we go again with another round of reverse operations. Is this for real this time? Last time, I was told the same thing, and I got liquidated directly, haha.

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GasFeeSobber

· 12-26 23:51

Another wave of "settled in stone," haha, I've seen this script too many times before. When it comes to cutting losses, we've never been this united. Now everyone is sitting together in short positions. This is a bit suspicious. 500,000 people getting liquidated, and big influencers are still hyping suspense. If brothers actually believed in these people's orders, they would have gone bankrupt long ago. What does it mean when whales are accumulating at low levels? Don't they have any clue? Japan's interest rate hike... Is it really that terrifying? Feels like an overreaction.

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AirdropChaser

· 12-26 23:50

It's the same old story. When 99% of people are bearish, should I go against the trend? That's correct, but when the time comes, who dares to go all-in?

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CompoundPersonality

· 12-26 23:49

Here we go again? Every time you say it's an extreme emotional reversal, but my account is already down 30%... Just betting on a rebound, anyway I've already been chopped up as a rookie.

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VitaliksTwin

· 12-26 23:46

Here we go again with the same rhetoric, short positions fully loaded waiting for a waterfall. I just want to ask, when will you learn not to get cut again? --- I believe whales bought in at 92,000, but what kind of positions are we retail investors holding? Haha --- Every time there's extreme emotion, people start talking about historical patterns. I saw the 3·12 event too, but I didn't see my position rebound. --- Those big V influencers shouting about a crash every day, then when there's a pullback, they say they've already positioned themselves. Quite interesting. --- Japan's rate hike isn't that scary? Please don't lie to me, we need to watch the dollar's movement to understand liquidity. --- 50,000 people wiped out, feels like I might be next, but I still have to play. --- Market makers follow the script? Laughable, there was never a script from the start, it's all about sentiment. --- Let's wait until TGA's funds are released, anyway, I'm just lying flat now.

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