2025-12-26 22:20:59

The recent market fluctuations have indeed left many people confused. A few days ago, the price slightly rose, and the market was filled with optimism; then it suddenly dropped, and the wave of pessimism was overwhelming. This kind of intense emotional swings is probably more exciting than a roller coaster ride.

We've all seen scenes like this: someone chasing the high during yesterday's rally, only to be trapped at the top today; others cut their losses the day before yesterday, only to see a rebound and regret it immensely. This is not a matter of individual trading skills but mainly a bias in judging the current market conditions.

Having been active in the crypto market for 8 years, my biggest realization is: chasing gains and selling losses is nothing but giving money to the market. To avoid being "harvested," you must first clearly understand what stage the market is in—whether it's sideways consolidation, bottoming out, or a rebound with false signals.

Let me add some basic knowledge for newcomers. There are three common market states, each with completely different characteristics: During sideways trading, prices are stuck within a certain range, unable to reach previous highs or break below previous lows, with buyers and sellers in stalemate. Bottoming is a period of stabilization after a significant decline, where the price repeatedly tests the bottom but always holds, with trading volume gradually increasing, often indicating brewing new opportunities. The most confusing is the rebound—it looks like the market is rising, but the actual trading volume is shrinking. The increase in price often stalls at a key resistance level and then turns downward, essentially a "bait" for the bulls.

Returning to the current market situation, why do I judge this as a rebound trap? There are three key points. First, during the rally, the trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating low market participation and a lack of genuine buying support. Second, technically, the price repeatedly tests recent highs but cannot break through, which is a typical sign of resistance. Third, from market sentiment, after just two or three days of upward movement, some people are already shouting "bottom confirmed."

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LowCapGemHunter

· 16h ago

Here comes again, how are the chasing traders doing today? --- This rebound is indeed a bit dirty, and the volume can't support it at all. --- Eight years of experience sounds impressive, but let's see if we can really avoid this trap. --- That's right, but the question is who can truly judge clearly. I was the one who cut losses the day before yesterday. --- Sideways movement, bottoming out, rebound—no matter how clear you explain, it’s useless; the next second, you get proven wrong. --- Not breaking the resistance level and claiming the bottom is confirmed? Come on, you're just fooling yourself. --- Shrinking trading volume is indeed a key signal; the bulls' bait is really fierce. --- Another big V who claims to see through the market; let's see what you say in a few days. --- Market sentiment is the most frightening; after two or three days of gains, people start fantasizing. I'm also stunned. --- Instead of reading these analyses, it's better to bet on the stone's accuracy. --- Holding onto the bottom line feels comfortable, but in reality, no one can withstand a big drop.

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BlockchainFoodie

· 12-26 22:50

honestly this volume situation is giving me major "sous vide without proper temperature verification" energy rn... like yeah it looks cooked on the surface but where's the proof-of-freshness? smh

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VitalikFanAccount

· 12-26 22:45

Riding the roller coaster every day, my heart is really strong Chasing highs and cutting losses at the same time, I've been playing this game for so long and still losing money? 8 years of experience really makes a difference Volume shrinking yet still pushing upward, a classic trap to lure buyers, this time I see through it

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Degen4Breakfast

· 12-26 22:33

With 8 years of experience, you're telling me this is just a pump-and-dump? Fine, I believe you. Anyway, I sold my holdings early, haha.

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ApeWithNoChain

· 12-26 22:28

This guy is right, chasing gains and selling losses is just giving money directly to the market makers. Watching others make money every day, but as soon as I get in, I get trapped. I really can't understand what's going on. Not many people can analyze so rationally after 8 years, I respect that. What sounds good is just a rebound trap, and what sounds bad is a schedule for harvesting retail investors. Daring to claim upward movement without increasing volume, isn't that obvious? I've heard a hundred times that the bottom is confirmed, but every time it turns out to be false, haha. This time different? I choose to believe in technical analysis, not human sentiment. It looks like it's going up, but actually it's just cutting losses. That metaphor is perfect. I think the problem isn't about misjudgment, but about losing control of the mindset. Sideways trading, bottoming out, rebound—easy to say, but really hard to distinguish.

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