Honestly, Bitcoin's recent performance has been a bit frustrating. The bulls and bears are tugging back and forth within the $78,000 to $92,200 range, and neither side has been able to truly overpower the other.

In my opinion, the most critical level is the $92,200 mark above. There are many stop-loss orders stacked here, and liquidity is ample. Once it breaks above this level, it could trigger a short squeeze, and the upward momentum could be very strong. Don't overlook the $78,000 level below either; it's where the 200-day moving average is located, and it's also a psychological barrier. If this level is truly broken, the price may continue to decline, targeting around $70,000.

**How to trade in the short term?**

Since the price is still oscillating within the range, you need to think contrarily. Trading around support and resistance levels with reverse strategies can yield a success rate of about 55%-65%.

Specifically, if the price rebounds to the $88,500-$90,000 zone and shows signs of stalling, such as a long upper shadow, you can cautiously try short positions. Place stop-loss above $90,500, and target $85,000. Conversely, if the price dips back to the support zone of $80,000-$82,000 and stabilizes, you can cautiously go long. Set a strict stop-loss below $78,000 and aim for $86,000.

**Medium to long-term strategy**

Don’t try to guess the bottom; let the market tell you the direction. Wait for a confirmed breakout before entering, which can increase the success rate to 65%-75%.

If there is a volume breakout and the price stabilizes above $92,200, it indicates a short-term sentiment reversal. You can then chase the long side, targeting $100,000. Conversely, if the price effectively breaks below $78,000 (closing below this level on the daily chart), it signals a deeper correction. Exit your positions and wait patiently for signs of stabilization around $70,000 before gradually building positions again.

**Risk always comes first**

With such high volatility, no single position should exceed 5% of your total capital. Always set stop-loss orders, limiting individual losses to within 1-2% of your total funds. This is the prerequisite for surviving and continuing to trade.