Markets Pricing in Overwhelming Odds of a September Rate Cut—CME Data Reveals 25 Basis Point Expectations

BlockchainArchaeologist · 2025-12-26T22:12:31+00:00

Traders predict a high likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, reflecting strong expectations for monetary easing. This anticipated shift may enhance liquidity and interest in cryptocurrencies.

BlockchainArchaeologist

2025-12-26 22:12:31

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According to the latest data from CME’s Federal Reserve Watch, traders and investors are heavily betting on monetary easing in the near term. The market is currently assigning an 87.4% probability to a 25 basis point rate cut happening in September, while only 12.6% odds are priced in for rates to remain unchanged.

This strong market consensus reflects growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin its cutting cycle sooner rather than later. The elevated probability suggests that rate markets are increasingly convinced the Fed will make a move, with the 25 basis point reduction being the consensus scenario among major market participants.

For crypto traders and investors, these Fed rate cut expectations carry significant weight. Lower interest rates typically increase liquidity in markets and can boost appetite for alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. As markets position themselves ahead of the September decision, the 87.4% probability figure underscores just how confident the collective market is about seeing monetary policy shift in a more accommodative direction.

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