$28 billion options settlement date: BTC breaks $90,000, ETH breaks $3,000, why do sellers end up laughing last?

【Crypto World】The recent settlement situation in the options market is quite interesting. According to macro data from Greeks.live, this year’s expiration date set a new record—nearly $28 billion worth of options are expiring, including 267,000 BTC options, with the biggest pain point at $95,000, corresponding to a notional value of $23.6 billion; ETH has 1.28 million options, with a pain point at $3,100, totaling $3.71 billion.

The Put Call Ratio indicates market sentiment: BTC is at 0.35, ETH at 0.45, both clearly leaning bullish. However, such bullish positioning doesn’t seem very optimistic in reality. BTC has already fallen below $90,000, ETH has broken $3,000, and the monthly chart shows four consecutive down weeks, creating a somewhat somber market atmosphere.

Honestly, Q4 this year might be the worst in history. Industry cycle factors combined with slow development pace, and implied volatility for major maturities remains around 40% for BTC and about 60% for ETH. These numbers are moderate this year, not signaling extreme panic. However, influenced by factors like the Christmas holiday and declining volatility, the volume of large options trades has been rising, mainly driven by institutional repositioning.

After the settlement, an interesting point is that March quarterly options have become the largest holdings, accounting for over 30%, mainly out-of-the-money call options. From this structure, rather than betting on a rebound, it seems more like the market is digesting losses. In such market sentiment, seller strategies tend to be more profitable.