Bitcoin has been under continuous pressure since October, with options expiration and oversold signals intertwined—what does the 2026 market outlook look like?

【CryptoPush】According to the latest weekly analysis report, Bitcoin has been on a downward trend since mid-October this year, and market cautiousness is growing increasingly strong.

Regarding future expectations, the “four-year cycle” theory has recently gained renewed attention. Many traders share the consensus that Bitcoin may continue to face pressure until 2026. Specifically, the ongoing pressure is driven by three forces: volatility convergence, deleveraging, and a lack of risk appetite.

From derivatives, spot ETFs, and candlestick patterns, the market positioning has already undergone significant changes. Notably, Bitcoin options contracts, which have reached a record high in scale, are about to expire. The distribution of strike prices directly reflects where the market is currently under pressure and where opportunities may be hiding.

Looking ahead, the end of the year is typically the most risk-averse period, with funds generally withdrawing. However, once the new year begins, reallocation of funds and risk budgeting will gradually restart, potentially leading to an accelerated market reversal.

From a technical perspective, the downward momentum is diminishing marginally, but there is still no clear consensus supporting an upward move. The market is shifting from a “downside risk dominance” expectation to a game state where “downward space is limited, and upward movement requires new catalysts.” Interestingly, the current Bitcoin price, combined with the weekly stochastic indicator, already shows oversold characteristics, with the indicator dropping to 17%, which usually suggests an increasing likelihood of a rebound.