Three Potash and Fertilizer Plays Worth Tracking in 2026

The fertilizer market has seen dramatic swings between 2024 and 2025. After a brutal 2024 marked by a market glut and collapsing nutrient prices, the industry staged a meaningful recovery through 2025, with potash price rallies and sustained demand in key agricultural regions. Yet headwinds remain—elevated raw material costs, particularly ammonia and sulfur tied to geopolitical disruptions, continue pressuring margins. Meanwhile, lower crop commodity prices and rising input expenses are forcing farmers to reconsider fertilizer application strategies.

Despite these crosscurrents, certain producers stand out for their operational resilience and earnings momentum heading into 2026. Here’s what’s worth paying attention to.

Market Backdrop: Potash Price Recovery Amid Persistent Cost Pressures

Through most of 2024, fertilizer producers faced a perfect storm. Oversupply flooded the market as major companies ramped production and supply chains normalized, while weak global agricultural demand created downward pressure on prices across nitrogen, phosphate and potash segments.

The 2025 turnaround hinged on several factors. China’s export curbs, new U.S. tariffs and tighter supply dynamics lifted prices meaningfully. Strong agricultural demand in North America and other key regions provided additional support, benefiting potash price floors and overall margin recovery for producers.

However, the industry isn’t out of the woods. Raw material inflation remains sticky—natural gas costs, critical for nitrogen fertilizer production, remain elevated. Ammonia and sulfur shortages, partly stemming from Russia-Ukraine war disruptions, have pushed input costs higher. Farmers, meanwhile, face a squeeze: net farm income is projected to rise 40.7% year-over-year to $179.8 billion in 2025 (per USDA), but crop cash receipts are expected to decline 2.5% due to oversupply-driven commodity price weakness. This dynamic could prompt growers to cut back on fertilizer intensity or shift toward lower-nutrient-requirement crops.

The silver lining: global food demand remains structurally strong, and expected increases in planted corn and soybean acreage globally suggest sustained fertilizer demand growth into 2026.

Three Fertilizer Names to Monitor

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) – Canadian producer with geographic and product diversification

Nutrien is positioned to benefit from solid crop nutrient demand, particularly across North America. The company is capturing gains through strategic acquisitions, especially in Brazil, and driving operational leverage via cost-reduction programs in potash production and digital platform adoption. Efficiency initiatives aimed at lowering controllable costs are supporting free cash flow generation.

Earnings growth for NTR is tracked at 32.6% for 2025. Consensus estimates have moved modestly higher, with revisions up 1.5% over the past two months, signaling incremental analyst confidence. NTR currently holds a Zacks Rank #3.

Yara International ASA (YARIY) – Norwegian leader in ammonia and mineral fertilizer

YARIY brings deep expertise in ammonia development and operations, positioning it well amid a favorable nitrogen demand backdrop. The company is executing cost-reduction initiatives and balance sheet strengthening efforts that should enhance profitability and cash generation. A commitment to shareholder returns via strong operating cash flows adds appeal.

YARIY’s earnings growth trajectory is exceptional: 150.6% projected for 2025. The company has delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise average of roughly 58.4%, and consensus revisions have edged up 0.9% in the past 60 days. Zacks Rank #3.

Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) – Sole U.S. muriate of potash producer with specialty products

IPI uniquely operates the only domestic muriate of potash facility and produces Trio specialty fertilizer. The company is capturing momentum from healthy farmer economics and economic recovery supporting Trio demand. Capital project execution is underway to boost production volumes across key product lines.

Earnings growth forecasts are striking: 506.7% for 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year 2025 earnings has been raised 3.4% over two months, reflecting material upside momentum. Zacks Rank #3.

What Matters in 2026

The fertilizer industry’s trajectory hinges on sustained agricultural demand, stabilization of input costs, and farmer ability to absorb higher fertilizer prices. While near-term demand may face headwinds from squeezed farmer margins and lower crop prices, longer-term structural tailwinds—rising global food consumption, expanded planted acreage and more balanced potash price dynamics—remain intact.

For investors evaluating fertilizer exposure, the three names above offer different angles: geographic diversification (NTR), input cost leverage (YARIY), and domestic supply positioning (IPI). Each has demonstrated earnings revisions momentum and positioned to benefit if potash prices and agricultural fundamentals hold.