#美联储回购协议计划 Thursday Morning Market Trend Analysis

The market remains in a range-bound consolidation pattern. Last night, the price touched around 88,800 before encountering resistance, and now it has fallen back near the 87,000 level. Ethereum is also following the downward trend. The high-level short opportunities we mentioned earlier have already been successfully closed for profit.

From a technical perspective, although the 4-hour candlestick chart has been closing with consecutive bullish candles and briefly surged to the upper band of the channel last year, it quickly plunged after reaching the top, indicating that there is indeed resistance; the initial support below is around the previous low of 86,500. However, the momentum of the rebound is weakening, and technical indicators are also showing signs of weakening. Once the midline is broken, the probability of breaking below the lower boundary of the channel will significantly increase.

From this perspective, it might be better to wait for a rebound to hit higher levels before going short — this approach has a higher probability of success.

Specific trading idea: Short when the rebound reaches the 89,300-89,800 range, with initial targets at 88,000-87,200. If the price continues to fall below that, then look further down to 86,000.