#通货膨胀 The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows only one rate cut next year, which clearly diverges from market pricing. Key information summary:

**Policy Outlook**: A total of 75bp rate cuts this year, but Powell emphasizes that inflation risks are tilted to the upside, and the labor market remains the decisive factor for future policy. Unusual disagreements have emerged among officials, and the preemptive rate cut cycle is nearing its end.

**Market Expectations vs. Reality**: Dot plot indicates 2 cuts vs. market expectation of 2 cuts, seemingly aligned, but the language reveals that the Fed's willingness to cut rates is significantly low. Morgan Stanley believes the actual rate cuts will be lower than market pricing; some analysts predict a 100bp cut next year based on soft wage growth, reflecting fundamental differences in inflation outlook.

**On-Chain Reaction**: Bitcoin surged past $94,000 after Powell's speech but quickly retreated to around $92,000, with increased volatility, indicating market uncertainty about future policy clarity.

The core logic is: inflation is more sticky than expected + the employment market has not weakened sufficiently = limited room for the Fed to cut rates. Attention will turn to the January labor data, which will serve as a policy compass for 2026. The current market optimism may face downward adjustment.