Blue Bird Stock Underperforms Market: What Investors Need to Know About BLBD's Latest Movements

Blue Bird (BLBD) is drawing attention as it shows weakness in the current market environment. During the most recent trading session, shares of the school bus manufacturer declined 2.29%, settling at $50.00—a performance that significantly lagged behind major market indices. While the S&P 500 retreated by 0.92%, the tech-focused Nasdaq fell 0.84%, and the Dow Jones dropped 1.18%, Blue Bird’s sharper decline suggests sector-specific headwinds or company-level concerns worth investigating.

Monthly Performance and Sector Context

Over the past month, Blue Bird has struggled more noticeably. The stock has shed 5.63% during this period, substantially underperforming both its industry peers and the broader market. The Auto-Tires-Trucks sector, which houses Blue Bird, declined only 1.9% over the same timeframe, while the S&P 500 actually posted a gain of 1.48%. This divergence suggests that the school bus maker faces challenges distinct from sector-wide trends.

Earnings Expectations: A Potential Catalyst Ahead

Investors are closely monitoring Blue Bird’s upcoming earnings disclosure scheduled for November 24, 2025. The company is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.97, which would represent a robust 25.97% increase year-over-year. On the revenue front, consensus estimates project $380 million in quarterly revenue, indicating an 8.51% rise compared to the same quarter last year.

For the full fiscal year, analyst consensus presents an even more bullish picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast annual earnings of $4.04 per share and total revenue of $1.45 billion. These figures reflect projected annual growth rates of +16.76% for earnings and a flat 0% for revenue compared to the prior year.

Analyst Sentiment and Stock Rating

Blue Bird currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), indicating a balanced outlook among analysts. Notably, there have been no revisions to consensus EPS estimates over the past month, suggesting analyst confidence remains relatively stable. The Zacks Rank system, which integrates estimate revisions and market data, has demonstrated a strong historical track record—stocks rated #1 (Strong Buy) have delivered average annual returns of 25% since 1988.

Valuation Analysis: Finding Value in BLBD

From a valuation perspective, Blue Bird presents an intriguing opportunity. The stock trades at a Forward P/E ratio of 12.32, which represents a discount compared to its industry average of 13.17. The PEG ratio—which adjusts price-to-earnings multiples for expected growth rates—stands at 1.34 for Blue Bird, compared to 2.68 for the broader Automotive - Domestic industry.

The Automotive - Domestic industry itself ranks 150th among over 250 tracked industries by Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 40% of rated sectors. Historically, research shows that top-tier industries outperform lower-ranked counterparts by a factor of 2 to 1, which adds another layer of consideration for Blue Bird investors evaluating the company within its broader industry context.

Investors tracking Blue Bird should continue monitoring earnings announcements, estimate revisions, and key valuation metrics through the upcoming trading sessions, as these factors typically drive significant stock movements.