Wheat Futures Take a Hit This Week: What the Numbers Tell Us

Wheat markets wrapped up the week in red across the board, with losses rippling through multiple trading venues. The Chicago SRW complex saw pressure throughout the week, posting 4-5 cent declines on most contracts while March delivery took a steeper hit, shedding 6 ½ cents from last week’s levels. Over in Kansas City, HRW futures mirrored similar weakness, dropping 4-5 cents Friday alone, though March contracts bore the brunt with a 13 ¼ cent weekly loss. Minneapolis spring wheat showed relative resilience, edging slightly lower on Friday, yet interestingly, March contracts managed to gain 2 ¾ cents across the week—a rare bright spot in an otherwise bearish session.

Traders Adjusting Positions as Market Sentiment Shifts

Behind the price action, the Commitment of Traders report dated November 18 revealed significant portfolio adjustments. Speculative funds trimmed their bearish bets in Chicago wheat, reducing net short positioning by 10,070 contracts to settle at 48,691. Similarly, managed money in Kansas City wheat futures cut 13,278 contracts from their short exposure, bringing levels down to 19,939 contracts. These moves suggest some repositioning as traders recalibrate their risk amid shifting market dynamics.

Export Activity and Week Ahead

A South Korean buyer stepped into the market overnight, securing 65,000 MT of wheat through private negotiations. Looking ahead, the USDA will release export sales data for the week ending November 20 on Monday, with trade expectations hovering between 300,000-750,000 MT as analysts monitor demand trends. The closing levels tell their own story: December CBOT wheat finished at $5.34 ½ unchanged, March CBOT at $5.29 ¼ down 4 ¼ cents, December KCBT at $4.98 ¾ down 16 ¾ cents, March KCBT at $5.18 down 4 ¼ cents, December MGEX at $5.82 ½ unchanged, and March MGEX at $5.76 ¾ off by just ½ cent.