Precious metals once again become the market focus, with gold breaking through the $4,500 mark and silver soaring 150% over half a year. Various discussion groups and social platforms are everywhere talking about this round of行情. Honestly, this kind of collective frenzy has only occurred twice in the past 50 years.

The first was from 1979 to 1980. At that time, the Bretton Woods system had just collapsed, oil prices surged again, and gold and silver increased by more than 4 times and 5 times respectively. The second was after the 2008 financial crisis, when central banks continuously loosened monetary policy, leading to another round of狂牛行情 in precious metals from 2009 to 2011.

But here’s a question worth pondering—what does history tell us?

Every time precious metals experience a狂涨, it is followed by a long period of silence. After 1980, gold started declining from its peak of $865, falling all the way to $250 in 2000, taking a full 20 years to recover. The 2011 cycle was similar, dropping from the high of $1900 to $1000 in 2015.

Interestingly, during this苦熬 period for precious metals, the stock market began to take off. From 1982 to 2000, the S&P 500 jumped from 100 points directly to 1500 points; from 2011 to 2022, it rose again from 1000 points to 4500 points.

This actually confirms an old rule: gold and the stock market tend to move inversely. When money depreciates, people rush to buy gold for避险; but once the economy starts to grow, funds flow back into the stock market seeking higher returns. Those敏锐的资金 are now pondering what the next move should be.