December 26｜Bitcoin Faces the Largest Annual Options Expiry in History (USD 23.7 Billion)

Today at 16:00 (UTC+8), Bitcoin will experience the largest annual options expiry in history, with a notional value of approximately USD 23.7 billion. Reviewing previous key quarterly/yearly expiries can provide important insights for the current market.

Review of Past Key Expiries
December 29, 2023｜Annual Major Expiry

Notional Value: approximately USD 11 billion

Maximum Pain Point: around USD 42,000

Before Expiry:
Market is in a highly suppressed state, with BTC trading sideways in the USD 42,000–43,000 range for an extended period, with volatility significantly suppressed.
After Expiry:
Hedging pressure is released, the “volatility cage” is lifted, and BTC quickly breaks out with increased volume over the following days, initiating a bullish trend toward USD 48,000 in early 2024.

March 29, 2024｜Quarterly Expiry

Notional Value: approximately USD 15 billion

Maximum Pain Point: around USD 65,000

Before Expiry:
Influenced by halving expectations, BTC experiences high volatility oscillations between USD 60,000–70,000, with active hedging suppressing short-term movements.
After Expiry:
Gamma hedging is released, leading to a rapid upward breakout, pushing BTC past USD 70,000 on the eve of halving, entering an acceleration phase of the bull market.

June 28, 2024｜Quarterly Expiry

Notional Value: approximately USD 17 billion

Maximum Pain Point: around USD 60,000

Before Expiry:
Market is in a correction phase, with prices oscillating around USD 60,000, increased selling pressure, and a clear gamma pinning effect.
After Expiry:
Short-term volatility amplifies; BTC dips initially then rebounds, but overall remains in a correction structure without immediately entering a strong trend.

September 27, 2024｜Quarterly Expiry

Notional Value: approximately USD 18 billion

Maximum Pain Point: around USD 62,000

Before Expiry:
Affected by Federal Reserve policies, BTC trades sideways in the USD 55,000–65,000 range, with compressed hedging volatility.
After Expiry:
Post-settlement volatility rebounds, BTC breaks upward, driven by rate cut expectations, and rebounds near USD 70,000.

December 27, 2024｜Annual Major Expiry

Notional Value: approximately USD 19.8 billion

Maximum Pain Point: around USD 75,000

Before Expiry:
Bull market high consolidation phase, with prices trading in the USD 70,000–80,000 range, and weak holiday liquidity.
After Expiry:
Hedging pressure is relieved, BTC continues the bull trend, quickly surpassing USD 80,000, with year-end momentum further fermenting.

March 28, 2025｜Quarterly Expiry

Notional Value: approximately USD 14 billion

Maximum Pain Point: around USD 85,000

Before Expiry:
Under favorable regulatory conditions, BTC oscillates between USD 80,000–90,000, with gamma providing phase support.
After Expiry:
Volatility expands and breaks upward, with BTC launching a rally toward USD 100,000.

June 27, 2025｜Quarterly Expiry

Notional Value: approximately USD 14.5 billion

Maximum Pain Point: around USD 102,000

Before Expiry:
Market sentiment is polarized, with increased price fluctuations.
After Expiry:
A short-term correction followed by continued upward trend, maintaining a healthy overall structure.

August 29, 2025｜Quarterly Expiry

Notional Value: approximately USD 13.8–14.5 billion

Maximum Pain Point: around USD 116,000

Before Expiry:
Holiday liquidity is low, BTC oscillates between USD 110,000–120,000, with evident gamma trap effects.
After Expiry:
Prices briefly dip below the pain point then quickly recover, volatility amplifies but trend remains intact, and the bull market structure continues.

December 26, 2025｜Today’s Annual Major Expiry (Key)

Notional Value: approximately USD 23.6 billion

Maximum Pain Point: around USD 96,000

Before Expiry:
Thin liquidity during Christmas holidays, combined with strong precious metals, causes BTC to trade sideways in the USD 85,000–90,000 range, with strong gamma hedging suppressing volatility.
Expected Post-Expiry:
As hedging structures unwind, the “volatility cage” is expected to open, significantly increasing market volatility.
If BTC can hold above USD 90,000, it may push toward the USD 100,000 mark or even trigger a new year-end rally.

Summary in One Sentence

History repeatedly proves: Large options expiries are not the end of a trend, but often the true start of volatility and directional movement.