The Metals Company Stock: Deep-Sea Mining Opportunity or Speculative Bet?

The Regulatory Tailwind

The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) finds itself at an intriguing crossroads. While it awaits formal approval from the International Seabed Authority (ISA), a UN-backed regulatory body overseeing deep-sea mining, the company is receiving unexpected support from Washington. In April 2025, President Trump signed an executive order designed to expedite permitting for seabed mining operations. This move could prove significant: the U.S. never ratified the treaty establishing the ISA, meaning American companies can operate under domestic frameworks.

TMC, though based in Canada, operates a U.S. subsidiary that has leveraged this advantage. In August 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that TMC USA’s exploration application meets all compliance standards and advanced the application to a certification phase estimated to take roughly 100 days. This regulatory momentum partly explains why the metals company stock has surged nearly 500% during 2025.

The Billion-Tonne Asset

Between Hawaii and Mexico lies the Clarion Clipperton Zone, a vast underwater region containing billions of tonnes of polymetallic nodules—potato-sized rocks loaded with battery-critical metals: nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese. No deep-sea mining company currently holds commercial extraction rights to these deposits.

The Metals Company controls exploration rights to a portion of this zone. According to the company’s estimates, its section could hold assets valued at approximately $24 billion. At a current market capitalization of roughly $3 billion, this valuation gap suggests substantial upside potential—assuming extraction becomes viable.

The Financial Reality Check

Yet optimism must be tempered by financial constraints. The metals company stock trades on expectations of future production, but commercial mining operations won’t commence until late 2027 at the earliest. That’s over two years without revenue generation.

As of June 2025, TMC reported $116 million in cash reserves against $22 million in operating losses. Quarterly cash burn averages approximately $10 million. Building deep-sea mining infrastructure and hydrometallurgical systems demands enormous capital expenditure. The company will almost certainly require significant funding injections to survive the development phase.

The Regulatory Limbo Persists

The ISA has spent over a decade developing a “mining code” to govern international deep-sea activities. Environmental concerns have repeatedly delayed finalization. Until this code takes effect, TMC’s future operations remain in regulatory uncertainty. While Trump’s executive order provides a potential U.S.-based pathway, international operations could face years of additional delays depending on ISA decisions.

Battery Chemistry—The Hidden Risk

Valuation models for nodule content rest on shaky assumptions. Battery formulations evolve. If electric vehicle chemistry shifts away from cobalt-dependent chemistries, or if copper finds viable substitutes, the $24 billion asset thesis collapses. Conversely, if AI-driven electricity demand creates metal shortages, TMC could strike a jackpot scenario.

Nodules don’t trade on exchanges. Their worth derives entirely from speculative projections about future metal scarcity. These projections can swing dramatically based on technological breakthroughs or demand shifts.

Investment Implications

The Metals Company stock represents a binary bet: either regulatory approval materializes, production launches on schedule, and the company captures enormous value from a scarce resource, or delays mount, funding dries up, or technological obsolescence undermines the entire premise. Investors with low risk tolerance might prefer diversified metals exchange-traded funds instead, which spread exposure across established mining operations rather than concentrating on a single speculative venture betting on an unproven extraction technology in uncharted waters.